Category: Projections

I’ve uploaded the most recent projections for both MORPS and Steamer/Razzball. These presumably incorporate more recent playing time projections. Also, Steamer has tweaked its model for pitchers a bit, adjusting regression means after finding its data were pessimistic compared to some other forecasting systems for 2013. For fantasy purposes, however, the actual forecast statistics themselves don’t really matter directly.… Continue reading Updated MLB Projections: MORPS and Steamer/Razzball

This season I’m going to be participating in an expert AL-only league organized by Going 9 Baseball, whose draft will be later today. It’s a snake draft, similar to the mock draft I participated in a few weeks ago. But instead of a shallow mixed league, this is a deeper AL-only league. And we’ll be managing these teams during… Continue reading Position Eligibility Matters – A Lot!

The Reds announced today that Aroldis Chapman will remain at closer, rather than join the starting rotation. So I’ve updated the RotoValue projections with his new role, now giving the Reds’ saves to him instead of Jonathan Broxton. So Broxton’s value plummets, while Chapman’s becomes more reliably solid. While he already projected to be a rather valuable starter… Continue reading Tweaking Projections Again – Aroldis Chapman to Close

I’ve uploaded the latest CAIRO projections, to version 0.5, and also tweaked my own projections with more recent injury information, among them the possibility that Mark Teixeira may be out until June. In addition, I’ve decided to apply my injury adjustment to Marcel data. The injury adjustment reduces projected playing time for players by an arbitrary… Continue reading Updating and Tweaking MLB Projections

Wins and saves are perhaps the hardest to predict of traditional Rotisserie categories, because they depend on so much that is outside the player’s control. A mediocre reliever given the chance to close can rack up impressive save totals, but he can just as quickly lose his job and become another anonymous middle man. Obviously… Continue reading Projecting Wins, Saves, and Holds

Thanks to Tim Oberschlake for making his MORPS baseball projections available on RotoValue. MORPS is the Major-League Obie Role-Based Projection System, a free system that tries to adjust for expected playing time. Tim describes his system here. Soon I’ll add it to the stew for the consensus projections on the site, but I’m happy to make… Continue reading 2013 MORPS Baseball Projections Now On RotoValue