Update 7 February 2014: I’ve updated the post below to add an additional source, Rosenheck, and to correct a bug in my code generating the table for missing players. The original table incorrectly was computing RMSE and MAE of only the players projected by a system without including missing players at all, leaving a very… Continue reading Monster 2013 Projection Review
Category: Projections
2013 Projection Systems Review: RA9 and WHIP
Thursday I compared five projection systems with their projections for weighted on base average. Today I’m looking at two different pitching categories, runs allowed per 9 innings (RA9) and WHIP, walks plus hits per innings pitched. Tom Tango kindly highlighted my post yesterday, but suggested that one of my charts was useless, because it did… Continue reading 2013 Projection Systems Review: RA9 and WHIP
2013 Projection Systems Review: wOBA
In each of the past two years, I’ve compared different baseball projections systems by looking at aggregate errors. In 2013, I had access to these projection systems: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Marcel – the basic projection model from Tom Tango, coauthor of The Book. This year I’m using Marcel numbers generated by… Continue reading 2013 Projection Systems Review: wOBA
Initial 2014 NBA Projections – Lillard Stands Out
I’ve completed the first cut NBA projections for 2013-2014, and was surprised to see second-year Blazers point guard Damian Lillard rank 4th in overall RotoValue for both an 8 category and 9 category format. Last year’s rookie of the year was a good player, but not even in the top 20 overall last season. So why is he… Continue reading Initial 2014 NBA Projections – Lillard Stands Out
Busts at the Break
This week I selected AL and NL fantasy all-star teams – players who exceeded preseason expectations by the largest amount. Not always the best players (although Chris Davis was close), they’re guys whose performance has been worth much more than you’d have expected at your draft. These are the players you need to win fantasy leagues. Today’s topic… Continue reading Busts at the Break
2013 NL Fantasy All Star Team
Yesterday I honored the mid-season AL Fantasy All Star Team. Now it’s time to do the same for the NL. I’m picking the team by finding the biggest positive difference in RotoValue prices computed from current stats at the break compared with preseason Consensus projections, on the theory that the Consensus data are a reasonably… Continue reading 2013 NL Fantasy All Star Team
2013 AL Fantasy All Star Team
With the MLB All Star game tonight, it’s a good time to see who the Fantasy all-stars are. One simple thing is to use RotoValue to see who’s having the best seasons so far. My site has demo lists for deep AL-only 4×4 and 5×5 leagues, and these are indeed the most valuable players under… Continue reading 2013 AL Fantasy All Star Team
Early Season AL Surprsises
Last week I looked at some NL players having particularly good or poor seasons relative to expectations. This week it’s time to do a similar scan at American League players. Mark Reynolds has been off to a hot start splitting time between 1B and DH, with a .302 average, 19 runs, 25 RBI, and league-leading 9… Continue reading Early Season AL Surprsises
Auction Weekend Recap
This past weekend we had the auctions for my two long-time leagues, the Park Slope Rotisserie League, a traditional 4×4 AL-only league, and the Ezra Stiles Rotisserie Association, a 4×4 NL league. This is the 25th season of the ESRA NL, of which I was a founding member, and the 26th year of the Park… Continue reading Auction Weekend Recap
One more preseason projection update
I’ve run a final preseason update for 2013, taking into account more recent injury reports, and also with another tweak in the playing time allocation model: http://www.rotovalue.com/cgi-bin/Search?league=4&year=2013&source=RotoValue In addition, I’ve uploaded the final preseason Steamer/Razzball projections: http://www.rotovalue.com/cgi-bin/Search?league=4&year=2013&source=Steamer/Razzball Also there’s a new feature: you can download search results as a .csv file by clicking on the… Continue reading One more preseason projection update