I’ve uploaded the most recent projections for both MORPS and Steamer/Razzball. These presumably incorporate more recent playing time projections. Also, Steamer has tweaked its model for pitchers a bit, adjusting regression means after finding its data were pessimistic compared to some other forecasting systems for 2013.
For fantasy purposes, however, the actual forecast statistics themselves don’t really matter directly. If you forecast a league ERA of 5.00 instead of 4.00, you can still be the best source for pitching projections if you’re best at ranking pitchers relative to each other. Ultimately the RotoValue pricing model normalizes all statistics – what matters isn’t a raw number in HR, or projected WHIP, but how your projected stats compare to others in the league.
I’ll be reviewing injury reports and doing another run update of my own projections, and I’ll also tweak the Marcel projections based on that injury adjustment.
To see the various projection system stats, and prices based on them for some sample league configurations, look at some of my sample leagues:
|5×5 Mixed League – $260 cap – using RotoValue projections|
|4×4 AL League – $260 Cap – using CAIRO projections|
|5×5 AL League – $260 Cap – using Steamer/Razzball projections|
|4×4 NL League – $260 Cap – using MORPS projections|
|5×5 NL League – $260 Cap – using Marcel projections|
Obviously you can change data source for each league to any of the projection systems available, or to use actual past year stats. Or if you’ve purchased RotoValue Analyst (a bargain at $10, IMO), you can also choose preseason stats, and get customized prices for your league’s configuration.