Updating Projections

I’ve updated projections at RotoValue, incorporating the most recent releases of two outside systems, Steamer/Razzball and CAIRO. In addition, I’ve updated my own RotoValue projections with playing time adjustments based on known injuries.
For RotoValue, I scan injury reports looking for players known to miss time. Based on that report, I make an estimate of how long they’ll be out, and I then reduce their raw projections by that estimate. For example, now that Curtis Granderson¬†will start the season on the DL with a fractured arm, I estimated that he’ll miss 20% of the season, and so I reduced his projected cumulative stats by 20%, dropping his projected AB from 563 to 450, and making similar reductions in his other stats.
Thus his projected auction price derived from these stats is lower, too. Using the mixed 5×5 where I did a mock draft last week as an example, Granderson’s price fell from $30.52 to $14.94 after applying the injury adjustments. That was a rather shallow league with a high replacement level, so Granderson missing a fair amount of time is a big hit.
I’ll be updating projections during the spring, incorporating new information as it comes in.

Leave a comment

Your email address will not be published.