Category: Projections

2021 NBA Projections on RotoValue

I’ve released RotoValue 2021 NBA individual projections. RotoValue projections take into account a player’s NBA statistics, age, position, and their depth chart position (if any) to predict statistics totals. The model regresses all players to a per-position league average, so centers will tend to have more blocks, and point guards more assists, than other players.… Continue reading 2021 NBA Projections on RotoValue

Customizing Projections on RotoValue with RotoValue Analyst

Projections are central to fantasy sports, and RotoValue integrates projections into the site. Pages like Search or Projected Standings have a Source selection, where you can choose which set of statistics to display: the current or past seasons, preseason data where available, and of course projections. But with RotoValue Analyst, you not only can see projections like Steamer,… Continue reading Customizing Projections on RotoValue with RotoValue Analyst

Reviewing the FiveThirtyEight 2018 Election Forecasts

Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com published forecasts of the 2018 mid-term elections, predicting the outcome of races for House, Senate, and Governor. The site also made it easy to download their projection data, and so I’d like to look at their forecasts and see how their models did. Silver made three variants of his model, dubbed “Lite”, “Classic”,… Continue reading Reviewing the FiveThirtyEight 2018 Election Forecasts

Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual

Tom Tango asked an interesting question on Twitter yesterday: The odds of the projected HR leader actually leading the league is an interesting question. I’ve been doing projections since 2011, so I thought I’d sweep my database for the RotoValue projections and see what that history was. That gives me just five years, but it… Continue reading Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual

Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP

Yesterday I ran comparisons of several projections systems for an all-inclusive batting statistic, wOBA. Today I’m running the same tests, computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), for two commonly used fantasy statistics, ERA and WHIP. These tests are bias-adjusted, so what matters is a player’s ERA or WHIP relative to the overall average of that… Continue reading Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP

Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA

In the past three years I’ve done reviews of baseball projections systems with actual data for those systems for which I could get data. Will Larson maintains a valuable site of projections from many different sources, and most of the sources I’m comparing are from that. As in the past, I’m computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for… Continue reading Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA

RV Current for NBA

Similar to what I’ve done with baseball, I’m now running new projections daily for NBA players under the name RV Current. These projections add current year data into the model, increasing the weight given to the current season as more games are played. This early in the season, the numbers aren’t much different from my… Continue reading RV Current for NBA

Tracking Injuries…

I’ve just rolled out some enhancements to RotoValue’s handling of injury reports. Now in addition to displaying reports, and highlighting the injury on player searches, I’ve added a new field, called Target Return:

2015 NBA Projections Take 1

I’ve run the first version of my 2015 NBA Stat projections. There are two versions, RotoValue and AdjRotoValue. My model starts with a weighted average of recent performance, adds regression to a per-position mean, and applies an aging adjustment (very young players will, other things being equal, tend to improve, while older ones will tend… Continue reading 2015 NBA Projections Take 1