Opening day! The start of the major league season is upon us, and RotoValue has predictions for how it may go. These standings are derived from the individual RotoValue statistical projections for the players in each organization. While there has been plenty of player movement, overall RotoValue thinks the six division winners from 2022 are… Continue reading MLB Predictions 2023
Category: Projections
MLB Crystal Ball 2021
Today is opening day, the start of the new season. How will it end up? Using RotoValue player projections for each team, I’ve estimated win totals based on projected runs scored and runs allowed. Here are the standings: AL East Won Lost Pct RS RA Yankees 87.1 74.9 0.538 665 617 Blue Jays 82.1 79.9… Continue reading MLB Crystal Ball 2021
2021 NBA Projections on RotoValue
I’ve released RotoValue 2021 NBA individual projections. RotoValue projections take into account a player’s NBA statistics, age, position, and their depth chart position (if any) to predict statistics totals. The model regresses all players to a per-position league average, so centers will tend to have more blocks, and point guards more assists, than other players.… Continue reading 2021 NBA Projections on RotoValue
Customizing Projections on RotoValue with RotoValue Analyst
Projections are central to fantasy sports, and RotoValue integrates projections into the site. Pages like Search or Projected Standings have a Source selection, where you can choose which set of statistics to display: the current or past seasons, preseason data where available, and of course projections. But with RotoValue Analyst, you not only can see projections like Steamer,… Continue reading Customizing Projections on RotoValue with RotoValue Analyst
Reviewing the FiveThirtyEight 2018 Election Forecasts
Nate Silver’s fivethirtyeight.com published forecasts of the 2018 mid-term elections, predicting the outcome of races for House, Senate, and Governor. The site also made it easy to download their projection data, and so I’d like to look at their forecasts and see how their models did. Silver made three variants of his model, dubbed “Lite”, “Classic”,… Continue reading Reviewing the FiveThirtyEight 2018 Election Forecasts
Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual
Tom Tango asked an interesting question on Twitter yesterday: The odds of the projected HR leader actually leading the league is an interesting question. I’ve been doing projections since 2011, so I thought I’d sweep my database for the RotoValue projections and see what that history was. That gives me just five years, but it… Continue reading Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual
Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP
Yesterday I ran comparisons of several projections systems for an all-inclusive batting statistic, wOBA. Today I’m running the same tests, computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), for two commonly used fantasy statistics, ERA and WHIP. These tests are bias-adjusted, so what matters is a player’s ERA or WHIP relative to the overall average of that… Continue reading Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP
Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA
In the past three years I’ve done reviews of baseball projections systems with actual data for those systems for which I could get data. Will Larson maintains a valuable site of projections from many different sources, and most of the sources I’m comparing are from that. As in the past, I’m computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for… Continue reading Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA
RV Current for NBA
Similar to what I’ve done with baseball, I’m now running new projections daily for NBA players under the name RV Current. These projections add current year data into the model, increasing the weight given to the current season as more games are played. This early in the season, the numbers aren’t much different from my… Continue reading RV Current for NBA
Tracking Injuries…
I’ve just rolled out some enhancements to RotoValue’s handling of injury reports. Now in addition to displaying reports, and highlighting the injury on player searches, I’ve added a new field, called Target Return: