So I uploaded the results of the Going9baseball mock draft to my web site as the 5×5 mixed demo league, and from there I can run projected standings. These numbers assume the lineups stay the same all year, and use projected stats to see how we stack up. The image will link to a dynamic… Continue reading Mock Draft Review
Category: Projections
Mock Draft Reflections
Today I did a mock draft online, which was quite an experience. First, I’d like to thank Mark Healy of http://www.going9baseball.com/ for inviting me to participate. It was fast and fun – we used http://www.mockdraftcentral.com to hold it, and it was configured to allow at most 60 seconds per pick. Healy hosts a weekly radio show on SiriusXMFantasy, and he… Continue reading Mock Draft Reflections
Crowdsourcing the Future!
Consensus forecasts, an averaging of forecasts from different sources, have done quite well in studies comparing forecast values with actual ones, so it makes sense to have a consensus of the projection sources RotoValue has for baseball. I’ve done an initial averaging of four sources: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Marcel – the… Continue reading Crowdsourcing the Future!
Mock Drafting
This Saturday I’ll be participating in a mock draft sponsored by Going 9 Baseball, which has a program on Sirius/XM satellite radio. I’m looking forward to the chance to jump into the season with a mock draft, and indeed they’ll be covering it live on the air (or at least the start of it). I’ve… Continue reading Mock Drafting
Projected Playing Time Comparison
My last post effectively compared projection systems by how well they predicted player skill level: I scaled each projection to match 2012 actual ab/ip, but used the rates each system projected to generate stats. Tango asked if I could run the reverse, a comparison where I used prorated actual 2012 stats but kept only the playing… Continue reading Projected Playing Time Comparison
Playing-time Neutral Projection Comparison
In response to Jared Cross’s suggestion, I’ve done one more set of RotoValue comparisons of projection systems. This time, I’m taking players’ actual 2012 AB or IP, and scaling the projections from each system to match that level of playing time. Also, since commenters Rudy Gamble and mcbrown were asking for ZiPS data, I’ve included that… Continue reading Playing-time Neutral Projection Comparison
Revised Projected RotoValue Comparison
Tom Tango highlighted my previous post on comparing computed RotoValue prices from projection systems, and he and others in the comments had some good suggestions for improving the player pool. So I’ve run some more data with slightly different sets of players. First, for each league configuration, I’m simply using the top 230/240 players in the… Continue reading Revised Projected RotoValue Comparison
Comparing Projected 2012 RotoValue Prices
I’ve previously compared five MLB projection systems for batting and pitching rate statistics, comparing the projections for 2012 with actual data. This post will compare 4 systems by looking at the RotoValue prices for a given projection stat set and league setup compared with actual 2012 data for the same setup. The four systems I’m testing will… Continue reading Comparing Projected 2012 RotoValue Prices
2013 MLB Projections, Take 1
I’ve revamped the RotoValue projection algorithm for 2013, and uploaded a first cut to the RotoValue web site. Here’s the top 20 players in a 5×5 mixed league format (click on the image to see the interactive page): This model is based largely on Tom Tango’s Marcel, but for pitching I force BABIP to be… Continue reading 2013 MLB Projections, Take 1
Reviewing Pitching Projections
Last week I posted some statistical results comparing five 2012 projections systems’ statistics to actual 2012 numbers for wOBA, a good summary offensive rate statistic. Now I’d like to run a similar analysis, but using pitching data, and 3 pitching rate statistics. I’ll be running numbers for a total of 7 systems: CAIRO – from S B… Continue reading Reviewing Pitching Projections