Last night I took part in the Going 9 Experts League draft. We started late (11:00 PM EDT), but the event was fast and fun. We drafted a total of 300 players in under 140 minutes, so it went much faster than my auctions do. The league is a 5×5 12-team mixed league, drafting a… Continue reading Going 9 Expert Draft
Inferring Conditional Probability from the FiveThirtyEight NCAA Model
Nate Silver is live with his new FiveThirtyEight, and it being the start of the tournament, I looked at their model for help in filling out my own bracket. It’s quite a slick presentation, and you can see the probabilities of any team reaching any stage of the tournament. That’s all good! From that page,… Continue reading Inferring Conditional Probability from the FiveThirtyEight NCAA Model
Polishing the Crystal Ball…
I’ve been hacking on my projections model, and now have a first cut for 2014 available. In the process of projecting wins and saves I look at projected runs scored and allowed for each team, so in the table below I just take those projected runs and convert them to wins and losses. My model currently… Continue reading Polishing the Crystal Ball…
Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison
7 February 2014: I found a bug in the program that generated the second table, the one using wOBA – 0.020 for any players not forecast, so I’ve replaced the older table with a corrected version, and adjusted some of the other text to reflect that. I’ve just posted a comparison of nearly 20 different projection… Continue reading Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison
Monster 2013 Projection Review
Update 7 February 2014: I’ve updated the post below to add an additional source, Rosenheck, and to correct a bug in my code generating the table for missing players. The original table incorrectly was computing RMSE and MAE of only the players projected by a system without including missing players at all, leaving a very… Continue reading Monster 2013 Projection Review
2013 Projection Systems Review: RA9 and WHIP
Thursday I compared five projection systems with their projections for weighted on base average. Today I’m looking at two different pitching categories, runs allowed per 9 innings (RA9) and WHIP, walks plus hits per innings pitched. Tom Tango kindly highlighted my post yesterday, but suggested that one of my charts was useless, because it did… Continue reading 2013 Projection Systems Review: RA9 and WHIP
2013 Projection Systems Review: wOBA
In each of the past two years, I’ve compared different baseball projections systems by looking at aggregate errors. In 2013, I had access to these projection systems: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Marcel – the basic projection model from Tom Tango, coauthor of The Book. This year I’m using Marcel numbers generated by… Continue reading 2013 Projection Systems Review: wOBA
The Case of the Missing Votes – Solved!
Murray Chass wonders why so many players who received Hall of Fame votes last year saw their vote totals drop this year: How does a writer put an ‘x’ in the box next to a player’s name last year, silently saying he belongs in the Hall, and then this year declaring with an empty box this… Continue reading The Case of the Missing Votes – Solved!
Comparing Replacement Level for Starters and Relievers
There was a discussion at Tom Tango’s blog which led to an interesting question: what’s the difference in effectiveness between a replacement-level starter and a replacement-level reliever? To answer this, you’d need to have some way of estimating replacement level for starters and relievers. Since I have a database with boxscore data since 2010, I… Continue reading Comparing Replacement Level for Starters and Relievers
More on Instant Running HOF Playing
Yesterday I talked about simulating Tom Tango’s idea for doing instant runoff voting for the Hall of Fame, and using prior year public ballot data to simulate his ranked ballots. In the comments in his blog, he asked about assuming all voters draw the line at 4 players (so long as they have at least… Continue reading More on Instant Running HOF Playing