I’ve updated my 2014 MLB projections, incorporating more recent injury and depth chart information into my playing time estimates.
Of course, since the season is two games old for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, this isn’t entirely “fair” – usually I’d want preseason forecasts to be entirely preseason. But with a full week before other games, I also don’t want to ignore more recent news for owners who have yet to draft. So I’ve settled on a compromise: I’m keeping my original projections visible on the site, but I’ve renamed them from RotoValue to RV Pre-Australia. Those numbers were my last run before any games started.
But I’ve rerun the numbers again, and am giving these newer number the label “RotoValue”. I avoided doing any injury updates affecting Dodgers or Diamondbacks, but did incorporate adjustments for other players (like young Rangers’ infielder Jurickson Profar, who is now expected to miss 10-12 weeks). Profar is a good example of this, as on his profile page you can compare these projections. His rate stats don’t change, but where I had projected Profar for 415 AB, I now project just 162.
Here’s an updated standings projection (links to team projections):
| AL East | Won | Lost | RS | RA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 88 | 74 | 710 | 651 |
| Red Sox | 86 | 76 | 734 | 687 |
| Yankees | 82 | 80 | 687 | 679 |
| Blue Jays | 82 | 80 | 732 | 724 |
| Orioles | 78 | 84 | 704 | 730 |
| AL Central | Won | Lost | RS | RA |
| Tigers | 92 | 70 | 743 | 653 |
| Indians | 79 | 83 | 704 | 718 |
| White Sox | 76 | 86 | 669 | 708 |
| Royals | 76 | 86 | 676 | 717 |
| Twins | 67 | 95 | 643 | 759 |
| AL West | Won | Lost | RS | RA |
| Athletics | 87 | 75 | 722 | 670 |
| Angels | 86 | 76 | 724 | 685 |
| Mariners | 85 | 77 | 694 | 663 |
| Rangers | 84 | 78 | 726 | 702 |
| Astros | 76 | 86 | 674 | 720 |
| NL East | Won | Lost | RS | RA |
| Nationals | 91 | 71 | 703 | 620 |
| Braves | 85 | 77 | 699 | 666 |
| Marlins | 79 | 83 | 641 | 662 |
| Phillies | 76 | 86 | 642 | 686 |
| Mets | 75 | 87 | 656 | 707 |
| NL Central | Won | Lost | RS | RA |
| Cardinals | 91 | 71 | 722 | 640 |
| Reds | 86 | 76 | 695 | 651 |
| Brewers | 82 | 80 | 697 | 690 |
| Pirates | 78 | 84 | 657 | 685 |
| Cubs | 67 | 95 | 596 | 715 |
| NL West | Won | Lost | RS | RA |
| Dodgers | 87 | 75 | 676 | 626 |
| Giants | 80 | 82 | 635 | 645 |
| Diamondbacks | 78 | 84 | 668 | 696 |
| Rockies | 77 | 85 | 693 | 729 |
| Padres | 76 | 86 | 635 | 674 |
These are largely the same as my previous projections. Now the Mariners slide to 3rd in the AL West, which still projects as the closest race, with four teams separated by three games, but the Tigers, Cardinals, and Nationals still project to have the most wins, while the Cubs and Twins project to have the fewest.