Playing Time Projection

A big unknown in fantasy projections is playing time. Indeed projecting playing time well may be as, or even more, important, to fantasy owners than projecting a player’s rate statistics. The playing time in RotoValue projections is the result of a three-stage process. First, a basic projection algorithm uses a player’s age and historical performance… Continue reading Playing Time Projection

2013 MORPS Baseball Projections Now On RotoValue

Thanks to Tim Oberschlake for making his MORPS baseball projections available on RotoValue. MORPS is the Major-League Obie Role-Based Projection System, a free system that tries to adjust for expected playing time. Tim describes his system here. Soon I’ll add it to the stew for the consensus projections on the site, but I’m happy to make… Continue reading 2013 MORPS Baseball Projections Now On RotoValue

Rookie Raises

Mike Trout had his contract renewed by the Angels for $510,000, apparently just $20k over the MLB minimum. Trout was the American League’s rookie of the year, and according to many, he should have also been its most valuable player, an award that went to Miguel Cabrera instead. I was wondering what the highest contract for… Continue reading Rookie Raises

Updating Projections

I’ve updated projections at RotoValue, incorporating the most recent releases of two outside systems, Steamer/Razzball and CAIRO. In addition, I’ve updated my own RotoValue projections with playing time adjustments based on known injuries. For RotoValue, I scan injury reports looking for players known to miss time. Based on that report, I make an estimate of… Continue reading Updating Projections

RotoValue Prices – a WAR For Fantasy Sports

So how are RotoValue auction prices computed anyway? One way to think of them is as a sort of WAR for fantasy sports. Tom Tango has done a great job explaining WAR, emphasizing that it is a framework, and thus you can have many different implementations. Ultimately that’s what RotoValue is – an implementation of a model… Continue reading RotoValue Prices – a WAR For Fantasy Sports

An Auction Guy Gets Drafted

I’ve blogged about participating in a fantasy baseball mock draft last weekend, but I have a confession: I’d never before done a straight baseball draft. I’ve been playing fantasy sports for over two decades, and I’ve done fantasy football drafts often. Once we did a fantasy basketball draft when the delayed season start made it impossible… Continue reading An Auction Guy Gets Drafted

Mock Draft Reflections

Today I did a mock draft online, which was quite an experience. First, I’d like to thank Mark Healy of http://www.going9baseball.com/ for inviting me to participate. It was fast and fun – we used http://www.mockdraftcentral.com to hold it, and it was configured to allow at most 60 seconds per pick. Healy hosts a weekly radio show on SiriusXMFantasy, and he… Continue reading Mock Draft Reflections

Mock Draft Results

I’ve uploaded the rosters for the mock draft to my web site as the 5×5 demo league. I’ll have a fuller post on the full experience later on, but for now, here’s some projected standings using the consensus of the projections that I have on the site.

Crowdsourcing the Future!

Consensus forecasts, an averaging of forecasts from different sources, have done quite well in studies comparing forecast values with actual ones, so it makes sense to have a consensus of the projection sources RotoValue has for baseball. I’ve done an initial averaging of four sources: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Marcel – the… Continue reading Crowdsourcing the Future!