Tom Tango highlighted my previous post on comparing computed RotoValue prices from projection systems, and he and others in the comments had some good suggestions for improving the player pool. So I’ve run some more data with slightly different sets of players. First, for each league configuration, I’m simply using the top 230/240 players in the… Continue reading Revised Projected RotoValue Comparison
Category: Major League Baseball
Comparing Projected 2012 RotoValue Prices
I’ve previously compared five MLB projection systems for batting and pitching rate statistics, comparing the projections for 2012 with actual data. This post will compare 4 systems by looking at the RotoValue prices for a given projection stat set and league setup compared with actual 2012 data for the same setup. The four systems I’m testing will… Continue reading Comparing Projected 2012 RotoValue Prices
2013 MLB Projections, Take 1
I’ve revamped the RotoValue projection algorithm for 2013, and uploaded a first cut to the RotoValue web site. Here’s the top 20 players in a 5×5 mixed league format (click on the image to see the interactive page): This model is based largely on Tom Tango’s Marcel, but for pitching I force BABIP to be… Continue reading 2013 MLB Projections, Take 1
Reviewing Pitching Projections
Last week I posted some statistical results comparing five 2012 projections systems’ statistics to actual 2012 numbers for wOBA, a good summary offensive rate statistic. Now I’d like to run a similar analysis, but using pitching data, and 3 pitching rate statistics. I’ll be running numbers for a total of 7 systems: CAIRO – from S B… Continue reading Reviewing Pitching Projections
Testing New Projection Models, and More Offensive Stats
As I’ve noted before, my older projection model has not done as well at projecting batters’ weighted on base average (wOBA) as several other publicly available systems, so I’ve been trying a different method. I’ve now tried doing something very similar to Tom Tango’s Marcel method – take a weighted average of recent performance, regress… Continue reading Testing New Projection Models, and More Offensive Stats
Reviewing Five 2012 MLB Projection Systems
Last year I ran some comparisons of a few projection systems for major league baseball, comparing several projection systems against 2011 data. So I thought it would be interesting to run a similar comparison of the five sets of projections I made visible for 2012 on RotoValue: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog.… Continue reading Reviewing Five 2012 MLB Projection Systems
Astros to the American League – Revisiting the Impact
The Houston Astros are moving to the American league for 2013. This is hardly news – it was announced after the 2011 season, and I did a post about the impact it might have back then. I’ve now updated the RotoValue engine so that the Astros are indeed considered an AL team for 2013 and into… Continue reading Astros to the American League – Revisiting the Impact
kwERA and FIP – A discussion and comparison
At the Inside the Book blog there has been a lot of discussion of FIP and kwERA recently. These are two alternate pitching metrics, developed by Tom Tango, both scaled so that values are similar to earned run average, but which only focus on certain parts of pitching. FIP is “Fielding Independent Pitching”, a metric… Continue reading kwERA and FIP – A discussion and comparison
NL Top 10 RotoValue 2012
Giants’ catcher Buster Posey was a clear winner of the NL MVP voting, but he was not the most valuable player in standard rotisserie formats. In both traditional 4×4 and 5×5 leagues, last year’s NL MVP Ryan Braun was the clear best player. Ironically, Braun won the MVP balloting last year, while being clearly behind Matt… Continue reading NL Top 10 RotoValue 2012
2012 AL Most Valuable Pitcher
On Saturday I posted the RotoValue top AL batters for both a 4×4 and 5×5 league, and noted that no pitchers ranked in the top 10. Today’s post lists the top prices for pitchers. As before, this is a 10 team 4×4 league with a $30 salary cap for 28 players (10 active pitchers, plus a… Continue reading 2012 AL Most Valuable Pitcher