Category: Major League Baseball

I caught the last two innings of Felix Hernandez’s perfect game last week, which was quite fun not only because of the tension of the perfect game, but also because the game itself was still on the line, and mattered quite a bit to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Mariners wound up with a 1-0… Continue reading Offensive Support In Perfect Games

Having good projections can help you make better decisions for your fantasy team. It may seem the point is trying to spot undervalued (or overvalued) players, and while that certainly is important, that’s not the only thing projections can do to help your team. I’ve recently introduced Projected Standings to RotoValue, a feature that lets… Continue reading Looking to the Future

… integrate with ’em! Since my efforts to project major league baseball statistics did not do better than some of the freely available systems, I figured I should make their data available in the RotoValue site. So I now have data from multiple projection sources available on the site: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level… Continue reading If You Can't Beat 'em…

Matt Swartz tested several statistics projections against actual 2011 numbers here. He follows the guidelines Tom Tango outlined in this post, computing weighted on base average (wOBA) for each player and  then comparing the actual wOBA to the projection. From the errors on individual players he computed both mean absolute error and root mean square error.… Continue reading Batting Around Crystal Baseballs

Tom Tango has tossed out the Marcel “Monkey” system to project baseball statistics, and he also has in recent years hosted a forecasters’ challenge, which compares projections  from professional forecasters with each other as well as with Marcel. Tango describes Marcel as “the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence… Continue reading Monkeying Around With Projections

Many rotisserie-scoring baseball leagues, especially in the 4×4 format, use an innings requirement. To discourage reliever-only strategies, which can make it easier to post low ERA and WHIP numbers, teams must reach a given number of innings (based on roster size) to qualify for points in those categories at the end of the season. Usually… Continue reading Innings Requirement Penalties

I read an MLB.com story about the Rangers’ game 5 win, and it cited this statistic: The team that won Game 5 prevailed in 26 of the previous 39 World Series that were tied at 2 after four games. This sounds like a good omen for Texas. But wait a minute. Suppose each team has a… Continue reading Winning game 5 a curse?