Looking to the Future

Having good projections can help you make better decisions for your fantasy team. It may seem the point is trying to spot undervalued (or overvalued) players, and while that certainly is important, that’s not the only thing projections can do to help your team. I’ve recently introduced Projected Standings to RotoValue, a feature that lets… Continue reading Looking to the Future

If You Can't Beat 'em…

… integrate with ’em! Since my efforts to project major league baseball statistics did not do better than some of the freely available systems, I figured I should make their data available in the RotoValue site. So I now have data from multiple projection sources available on the site: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level… Continue reading If You Can't Beat 'em…

Batting Around Crystal Baseballs

Matt Swartz tested several statistics projections against actual 2011 numbers here. He follows the guidelines Tom Tango outlined in this post, computing weighted on base average (wOBA) for each player and  then comparing the actual wOBA to the projection. From the errors on individual players he computed both mean absolute error and root mean square error.… Continue reading Batting Around Crystal Baseballs

Monkeying Around With Projections

Tom Tango has tossed out the Marcel “Monkey” system to project baseball statistics, and he also has in recent years hosted a forecasters’ challenge, which compares projections  from professional forecasters with each other as well as with Marcel. Tango describes Marcel as “the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence… Continue reading Monkeying Around With Projections

Innings Requirement Penalties

Many rotisserie-scoring baseball leagues, especially in the 4×4 format, use an innings requirement. To discourage reliever-only strategies, which can make it easier to post low ERA and WHIP numbers, teams must reach a given number of innings (based on roster size) to qualify for points in those categories at the end of the season. Usually… Continue reading Innings Requirement Penalties

2011 RotoValue Top NL Pitchers 5×5

Today I’m discussing the top 30 NL pitchers in a 10-team 5×5 league ranked by RotoValue, using their 2011 stats. I’m assuming a $260 salary cap for 23 active players (including 10 pitchers) and a 4 person reserve bench. Previously I’ve reviewed catchers, outfielders, middle infielders, and corner infielders. Without further ado, the top 30… Continue reading 2011 RotoValue Top NL Pitchers 5×5