I’ve run the first version of my 2015 NBA Stat projections. There are two versions, RotoValue and AdjRotoValue. My model starts with a weighted average of recent performance, adds regression to a per-position mean, and applies an aging adjustment (very young players will, other things being equal, tend to improve, while older ones will tend… Continue reading 2015 NBA Projections Take 1
It’s easy to find lists of the best players in fantasy baseball. Lots of people have opinions on the matter, and plenty use formulas and models to rank players. Clayton Kershaw is baseball’s best starter, and was likely the most valuable pitcher in almost any format. Mike Trout was also outstanding, and while not clearly the best position player… Continue reading 2014 Fantasy All Stars
I’ve added some more basic statistics for baseball to the RotoValue system. For pitchers, I’ve added 2B allowed, 3B allowed, runs allowed, balks, and at bats against. For batters, I’ve added games started and intentional walks. You can chose these as scoring and/or (if you’re a RotoValue Analyst customer) display categories.
The player news and analysis notes shown on RotoValue now come from RotoWire instead of RotoWorld. My feed provider for news, XML Team Solutions, contacted me Friday to let me know they had lost the ability to send RotoWorld data, but were now sending RotoWire instead. The RotoWorld data stopped coming in on Thursday, July… Continue reading RotoValue Now Uses RotoWire Player News
Wednesday I introduced a page comparing traditional wins and losses with those assigned by a points system proposed by Tom Tango. Tom agreed with my modification of run values, using -5 in win points and 10 in loss points. Today I’d like to highlight some of the biggest changes in record using this proposal would… Continue reading Who gains and loses if we #RedefineTheWin?
While Brian Kenny turned #KillTheWin into a Twitter meme, Tom Tango has proposed redefining it. Rather than using the old definition, he suggests computing “win points” and “loss points” for each game, and then giving the player with the most win points on the winning team a win, while the player with the most loss points on the losing… Continue reading #RedefineTheWin
Blue Jays’ starter Mark Buehrle is off to a great start so far this season, leading the majors with 6 wins, with an ERA of 1.91. While not as impressive as his ERA, Buehrle’s FIP, fielding-independent pitching, is a still-excellent 3.04, which would be a career best by nearly half a run, and is more… Continue reading When the hurling Buehrle's won… or perhaps why!
Today I’m introducing a new projections source, which I’m calling RV Current. The idea is to use the same basic projection model I use in the preseason, but also include current year data in the model. The goal is a current “true talent” estimate for each player. So in addition to taking up to 3 years… Continue reading Introducing RV Current
On Monday, Nate Silver looked at the odds of winning a second-round playoff series after going 7 games to win the first round, and found that your chances to win go down: Original SRS odds: Miami 88 percent to win the series. Modified SRS odds: Miami 95 percent to win the series. Miami swept its… Continue reading Hedging Your Bets on the Nets?
While we can’t know the future, we can make educated guesses and projections about it. RotoValue does this by displaying projected stats (both my own projections, and for baseball, projections contributed from outside sources, Steamer, Marcel, and MORPS), and also by letting you choose prorated stats for the current year or the previous year. When I first… Continue reading Improving Future Statistics