While I mostly do projections to try to value fantasy players, one side effect is that in projecting wins, saves, and holds for pitchers, I also estimate team wins. So here are this year’s standings based on RotoValue projections:
| AL East | Won | Lost | Pct | RS | RA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 87.9 | 74.1 | 0.543 | 650 | 596 |
| Yankees | 85.8 | 76.2 | 0.530 | 676 | 639 |
| Blue Jays | 83.2 | 78.8 | 0.514 | 625 | 609 |
| Rays | 80.0 | 82.0 | 0.494 | 619 | 627 |
| Orioles | 79.7 | 82.3 | 0.492 | 632 | 642 |
The Red Sox project to win a tight AL East, led by Garrett Crochet, whom I project as the #2 starting pitcher in the AL, left fielder Jarren Duran, and closer Aroldis Chapman. Just two games back are the rival Yankees, with the AL’s best player Aaron Judge, winner of 3 of the last 4 MVP awards. Jazz Chisholm Jr. combines power and speed at the middle infield, and Max Fried led the AL in the archaic, but often highly fantasy relevant wins category.
The defending AL champion Blue Jays still have Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Kevin Gausman, and George Springer, who is coming off a stellar resurgent year. But they lost Bo Bichette to the Mets via free agency, and now project to just 83 wins. But that’s still the 6th highest projected win total in the league, so if things follow form they’ll make the playoffs as the last wild card.
Tampa Bay will return to their home of Tropicana Field, after playing last season in the Yankees’ spring training stadium while their dome was being repaired after damage from Hurricane Milton. Junior Caminero burst onto the scene with 45 home runs last year, and Chandler Simpson stole 44 bases in barely 2/3 of a season. While the team projects to be just under .500, that’s still just under 8 games behind Boston, and just over 3 games out of the postseason.
The Baltimore Orioles project to a virtual tie with Tampa Bay, so all five AL East teams could genuinely be in playoff contention. The orange and black birds are led by Gunnar Henderson, and added former Mets slugger Pete Alonso via free agency.
| AL Central | Won | Lost | Pct | RS | RA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigers | 86.9 | 75.1 | 0.536 | 626 | 581 |
| Royals | 83.9 | 78.1 | 0.518 | 602 | 579 |
| Guardians | 78.2 | 83.8 | 0.483 | 618 | 639 |
| Twins | 76.3 | 85.7 | 0.471 | 575 | 611 |
| White Sox | 71.1 | 90.9 | 0.439 | 566 | 642 |
The Detroit Tigers entered September with a 9.5 game lead over Cleveland, but wound up losing the division by one game. Even so, their 86.9 projected wins are the best in the division. The Tigers are headlined by Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, and they further strengthened their rotation by signing Framber Valdez from Houston and bringing Justin Verlander back to where his career began. LF Riley Greene projects to be their best hitter.
The Kansas City Royals project to win 83.9 games, 3 fewer than Detroit, but still 5th best in the AL and worth a wild card. Bobby Witt Jr. may actually be the most valuable fantasy asset in the league, as he’s well above average in all 5 standard offensive categories, while Aaron Judge doesn’t steal much. Cole Ragans should be their ace, and Salvador Perez provides power whether catching or DHing.
Last year’s division winning Guardians actually gave up more runs last year than they scored, but wound up 14 game over .500 anyhow. My model sees them as just a little worse in run differential, but that projects to just 78.2 wins, more than 8 behind Detroit. José Ramírez is their star, and the best corner player in the league. Cade Smith replaces Emmanuel Clase as closer, but that promotion means they no longer have an elite set-up man. The full year of Smith, with somewhat better pitching percentages and 3 more wins, was actually more valuable than Clase last year, even though Clase had 8 more saves.
With just 70 wins and a 4th place finish Minnesota did not have much to cheer about last year overall, but perennially brittle outfielder Byron Buxton posted career highs in games, AB, HR, and SB on his way to a top-10 fantasy season among AL players. The team should be better this year also, as regression to the mean implies improvement for weaker teams. Luke Keaschall is an intriguing talent at second, and Joe Ryan should be a solid starting pitcher.
The White Sox lost more than 100 games for the third straight year, but their 60 wins were still a 19 game improvement over 2024. Their biggest splash in the offseason was signing Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami, who should provide power and play first. Rookie shortstop Colson Montgomery homered 21 times in just 71 games last year and is projected to be their best player in my model (unfortunately I don’t have Japanese League stats in my database, so Murakami’s projection lies heavily on regression to the positional average).
| AL West | Won | Lost | Pct | RS | RA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariners | 87.0 | 75.0 | 0.537 | 644 | 598 |
| Astros | 80.9 | 81.1 | 0.499 | 556 | 557 |
| Rangers | 79.0 | 83.0 | 0.488 | 648 | 663 |
| Athletics | 72.8 | 89.2 | 0.449 | 615 | 678 |
| Angels | 70.4 | 91.6 | 0.435 | 599 | 680 |
Seattle’s 87 projected wins is behind only Boston in the AL, over 6 games ahead of last year’s division runner-up Houston. In the 4×4 rankings for my long-term AL only league, they have 3 of the top 10 projected players in CF Julio Rodríguez, 1B Josh Naylor, and Big Dumper Cal Raleigh, whose 49 HR as a catcher (out of 60 overall) smashed the MLB record for the position. The Mariners also have an elite closer in Andrés Muñoz and a trio of excellent starters in Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Bryan Woo.
Last year’s runner-up Astros project to finish second again, but outside a playoff berth. Jose Altuve and Jeremy Peña give them the league’s best double-play combination, and Hunter Brown is their ace after Framber Valdez signed with Detroit. Star closer Josh Hader starts the year on the injured list, though.
Texas’s other team, the Rangers, should give Houston a fight for second in the division, led by shortstop Corey Seager and starters Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. After pitching just 41 innings in his first two years in Texas, deGrom made 30 starts and threw over 170 innings, his highest total since 2019.
The Athletics will again play their home games in Sacramento this year and project to finish fourth in the division. Their temporary home helps offense, so they don’t project to have much pitching value for fantasy. But they have batters who should contribute a lot: 1B Nick Kurtz mashed 36 home runs, SS Jacob Wilson hit .311, and both DH Brent Rooker and C Shea Langeliers joined Kurtz going deep 30+ times.
Angels owner Arte Moreno drew justifiable criticism for saying the team’s fans didn’t care much about winning, but that description applies better to management. The Halos were last in the division in 2025, and project to finish last again, not only in the West, but in the entire AL, as their 70.4 expected wins trails even the White Sox. Mike Trout was once the perennial best player in baseball, but injuries and age have taken their toll. He’s moving back to CF this year, but his flanking teammates Josh Lowe and Jo Adell, who hit a career-best 37 HR last year, both project to be more valuable than Trout. The Angels’ best projected player, though, is SS Zach Neto, who has had 20+ stolen bases and home runs in each of the last two years.
| NL East | Won | Lost | Pct | RS | RA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | 86.9 | 75.1 | 0.536 | 669 | 623 |
| Braves | 86.8 | 75.2 | 0.536 | 580 | 535 |
| Mets | 85.6 | 76.4 | 0.528 | 594 | 559 |
| Marlins | 74.7 | 87.3 | 0.461 | 590 | 638 |
| Nationals | 71.1 | 90.9 | 0.439 | 630 | 706 |
The NL East projects to have the closest race, with the top three teams separated by just 1.3 wins. The Phillies won the divsion last year, but just barely edge out the Braves in my projections. Philadelphia’s best projected fantasy player is Cy Young award runner-up Cristopher Sánchez, and their offense is loaded with SS Trea Turner, DH Kyle Schwarber, and 1B Bryce Harper. The team also will have closer Jhoan Duran, acquired from Minnesota in a deadline deal last season, for the full year.
Atlanta slumped to fourth place in the division last year, but this year they project to finish in a virtual tie with Philadelphia. Their top two projected players, SP Chris Sale and RF Ronald Acuña Jr., both missed significant time last year, so their health may be key to the team’s prospects. 1B Matt Olson hasn’t missed a game in his four years with the Braves. They have a strong closer in Raisel Iglesias, and traded for Robert Suarez at last year’s deadline to give them an excellent backup.
While only projected to finsh third, at just 1.3 games back the Mets project to finish closer to first than the second-place finisher in any of the other divisions. This will be a three team race, but if projections hold all three teams will make the postseason. Juan Soto projects to be the #3 overall player in the league, while SS Francisco Lindor is coming off a 30/30 season. The Mets lost Pete Alonso to free agency, but added Bo Bichette, who will move from SS to 3B, and former Brewers and Yankees closer Devin Williams.
Miami projects to finish more than 10 games behind the division’s top three. After missing all of 2024 due to injury, 2022 Cy Young award winner Sandy Alcantara did make 31 starts, but had an ERA over 5 and FIP over 4. The Marlins need him to improve on that to have any shot at the postseason. CF Jakob Marsee projects to be their best player, with 2B Xavier Edwards also being valuable.
First in War, FIrst in Peace, and Last in the National League East – this projects to be a long season in the nation’s capitol. While the team might not be good this year, there are a few players who could be solid assets for a fantasy team. SS CJ Abrams can steal 30+ bases with decent power in the middle infield, while LF James Wood has 30+ HR power along with 15 SB last year. Luis García Jr. should get 15/15, but is moving from 2B to 1B both to fill a hole at first and make room for Nasim Nuñez, who has 30+SB potential. Another young player who could make an impact is Daylen Lile.
| NL Central | Won | Lost | Pct | RS | RA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 88.4 | 73.6 | 0.546 | 689 | 632 |
| Cubs | 84.1 | 77.9 | 0.519 | 700 | 676 |
| Pirates | 83.3 | 78.7 | 0.514 | 584 | 566 |
| Reds | 81.7 | 80.3 | 0.504 | 666 | 660 |
| Cardinals | 76.0 | 86.0 | 0.469 | 586 | 625 |
The NL Central looks to be the deepest division, as 4 of 5 teams project to finish above .500, while the 5th is just 10 games under. Last year’s division winner Milwaukee, which had the league’s best regular season record, tops the division again, but this time with the second-best record in the league. Former MVP Christian Yelich is the team’s star, and will mostly DH, but C William Contreras projects to be about as valuable. LF Jackson Chourio is still just 22, having nearly identical 20/20 years for his first two seasons. 2B Brice Turang added some power last year with 18 HR, partially offsetting a drop in SB from 50 to 24.
Last year’s runner-up Cubs figure to be 4 games back, but also project to take the last wild card slot. CF Pete Crow-Armstrong had a stellar start to 2025, but tailed off dramatically in the second half. He had 25 HR, 71 RBI, and 27 SB at the All Star break, but hit just .197 with 2 HR, 16 RBI, and 7 SB after, dropping his average from .271 to .250. 2B Nico Hoerner projects to be the most valuable Cub, followed by OF Seiya Suzuki. The team signed 3B Alex Bregman, which may partly offset the loss of the winter’s big free agent prize, Kyle Tucker, who signed with the Dodgers.
If they live up to my projections, the Pittsburgh Pirates will have their first winning record since 2018. The Bucs are led by NL Cy Young award winner Paul Skenes, who projects to be the second most valuable fantasy player in the league. They added DH Marcell Ozuna from Atlanta. Another possible fantasy asset is reliever Dennis Santana, who seems to be the favorite for the closer role.
Cincinnati projects just behind Pittsburgh, and still above .500. Led by the dynamic shortstop Elly De La Cruz, the Reds can compete for a playoff spot. DH Eugenio Suárez returns after clubbing 49 homers last year, 36 for Arizona, and 13 for Seattle. Rookie Sal Stewart has power potential, and will start the season at 1B.
Rounding out the division is St. Louis. The Cardinals don’t really have any fantasy stars this year. The best batter is likely to be C Iván Herrera or 1B Alec Burleson, with their best pitchers either Kyle Leahy or reliever JoJo Romero.
| NL West | Won | Lost | Pct | RS | RA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 97.4 | 64.6 | 0.601 | 735 | 608 |
| Diamondbacks | 83.3 | 78.7 | 0.514 | 635 | 617 |
| Giants | 82.2 | 79.8 | 0.507 | 619 | 610 |
| Padres | 77.4 | 84.6 | 0.478 | 583 | 610 |
| Rockies | 68.0 | 94.0 | 0.420 | 604 | 704 |
While they didn’t have the league’s best regular season record last year, the Dodgers repeated as World Series champions last year anyhow. And they project to have the best record in baseball this season, 97.4-64.6, a comfortable 9 games over Milwaukee. Los Angeles is led by two way superstar Shohei Ohtani, who after never reaching the playoffs with the cross town Angels has now won two titles in two years in Dodger Blue. The DH/pitcher has also won an MVP in 4 of the last 5 years, finishing second behind Aaron Judge in 2022. But the Dodgers have more than just Ohtani – they project to have 4 more of the top 20 NL players. Countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto was electric in the postseason, and ranks 9th in my 4×4 traditional NL-only roto league. Also in the top 20 projected players are RF Kyle Tucker, the top free agent signing from the Cubs, closer Edwin Díaz, a free agent signing from the Mets, and 1B Freddie Freeman.
While the division seems a lock for the Dodgers, Arizona projects to edge out San Francisco for second, and just miss the last wild card. The Diamondbacks best player is RF Corbin Carroll, who reached 30/30 for the first time in his career last year despite missing 19 games. The NL’s best middle infield pair is from Arizona, in 2B Ketel Marte and SS Geraldo Perdomo. Marte has hit 25 or more HR for three years in a row, while Perdomo had a breakout season last year, hitting .290 with 20 HR, 100 RBI, and 27 SB.
The Giants should battle Arizona all year. Logan Webb gives them an elite starter and potential Cy Young award winner. They will have DH Rafael Devers for a full season, after acquiring him in a midseason trade from Boston last year. Free agent Luis Arraez will move from 1B to 2B, while Ryan Walker figures to get most of the saves.
My model has the Padres dropping off. They lost Luis Arraez to division rival San Francisco, and they traded closer Robert Suarez. But they also added Mason Miller from the Athletics. So if I were betting, I’d take the over relative to their projected 77.4 wins. This team does still have star talent in RF Fernando Tatis Jr. and 3B Manny Machado, and CF Jackson Merrill is still not yet 23 and should bounce back from a disappointing 2025.
There is a certain symmetry in the NL West having the projected best team in baseball, the Dodgers, and the projected worst, the Colorado Rockies. Los Angeles is the only team projected to win more than 90 games, while Colorado is the only one projected to win less than 70. Despite the humidor, Coors Field makes Rockies pitchers unusable in all but the deepest leagues, but conversely Rockies batters can post some nice numbers. C Hunter Goodman hit .278 with 31 HR and 91 RBI last year. RF Jordan Beck is still just 24 and has 20/20 potential. Former #1 overall draft pick Mickey Moniak hit 24 homers. But when you give up more runs than you score, you still lose, and that seems likely to happen a lot this year for the Rockies.
Projections are fun, but the real games start tonight. As of now, everyone is tied for first place. Play Ball!