I’ve revamped the RotoValue projection algorithm for 2013, and uploaded a first cut to the RotoValue web site. Here’s the top 20 players in a 5×5 mixed league format (click on the image to see the interactive page):
This model is based largely on Tom Tango’s Marcel, but for pitching I force BABIP to be the same for all pitchers. That is, guessing a league average BABIP for a pitcher results in lower error rates for WHIP (and earned runs) than using the BABIP implied simply by historical hits allowed.
At a casual glance on thing that stands out to me is Adam Wainwright making the top 20 overall in a 5×5 mixed league ranking. Wainright missed all of 2011, but came back to throw nearly 200 innings. While his 3.94 ERA was hardly stellar, he posted FIP and kwERA numbers in line with his pre-injury seasons, and so the model projects that he can regain his former dominance.
The top 5 overall in RotoValue were Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Ryan Braun. Matt Kemp is probably the biggest name not in the top 20, checking in at #22 because the model’s playing time projection heavily weighs his injury prone year, and he projects for just 518 AB.
In addition to the 5×5 mixed league, I also have links to four other demo league formats, so you can see fantasy prices in different contexts:
Links to these demo leagues, as well as recent player news, is now also available from the RotoValue home page.
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