Last week I posted some statistical results comparing five 2012 projections systems’ statistics to actual 2012 numbers for wOBA, a good summary offensive rate statistic. Now I’d like to run a similar analysis, but using pitching data, and 3 pitching rate statistics. I’ll be running numbers for a total of 7 systems: CAIRO – from S B… Continue reading Reviewing Pitching Projections
Month: January 2013
Testing New Projection Models, and More Offensive Stats
As I’ve noted before, my older projection model has not done as well at projecting batters’ weighted on base average (wOBA) as several other publicly available systems, so I’ve been trying a different method. I’ve now tried doing something very similar to Tom Tango’s Marcel method – take a weighted average of recent performance, regress… Continue reading Testing New Projection Models, and More Offensive Stats
Reviewing Five 2012 MLB Projection Systems
Last year I ran some comparisons of a few projection systems for major league baseball, comparing several projection systems against 2011 data. So I thought it would be interesting to run a similar comparison of the five sets of projections I made visible for 2012 on RotoValue: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog.… Continue reading Reviewing Five 2012 MLB Projection Systems
More "Make-it, take-it" Data
At the suggestion of Tom Tango, I ran my basketball simulator with many different inputs to see what impact different scoring levels and game lengths might have on the change to a “make-it, take-it” rule for basketball replacing alternating possessions after scoring. The short summary is that I find overtime games are much less likely… Continue reading More "Make-it, take-it" Data
"Make it, take it" Simulations
In a discussion on Tom Tango’s blog, Phil Birnbaum was speculating about whether switching basketball to “make it, take it” might change the balance of the game, and he thought it might help the underdog win more often. After reading his comment, I thought of a rather simple simulation I could hack up to test… Continue reading "Make it, take it" Simulations
Astros to the American League – Revisiting the Impact
The Houston Astros are moving to the American league for 2013. This is hardly news – it was announced after the 2011 season, and I did a post about the impact it might have back then. I’ve now updated the RotoValue engine so that the Astros are indeed considered an AL team for 2013 and into… Continue reading Astros to the American League – Revisiting the Impact