{"id":641,"date":"2013-03-02T17:08:01","date_gmt":"2013-03-02T22:08:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/?p=641"},"modified":"2013-03-02T17:08:01","modified_gmt":"2013-03-02T22:08:01","slug":"updating-projections","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/02\/updating-projections\/","title":{"rendered":"Updating Projections"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ve updated projections at RotoValue, incorporating the most recent releases of two outside systems, <a href=\"http:\/\/steamerprojections.com\/blog\/downloads\/\">Steamer\/Razzball<\/a> and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rlyw.net\/index.php\/RLYW\/direct\/cairo_2013_v0.4_and_still_slightly_early_and_somewhat_useless_2013_projecte\">CAIRO<\/a>. In addition, I&#8217;ve updated my own RotoValue projections with playing time adjustments based on known injuries.<br \/>\nFor RotoValue, I scan injury reports looking for players known to miss time. Based on that report, I make an estimate of how long they&#8217;ll be out, and I then reduce their raw projections by that estimate. For example, now that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rotovalue.com\/cgi-bin\/PlayerDetail?player=321&amp;league=1&amp;year=2013\">Curtis Granderson<\/a>\u00a0will start the season on the DL with a fractured arm, I estimated that he&#8217;ll miss 20% of the season, and so I reduced his projected cumulative stats by 20%, dropping his projected AB from 563 to 450, and making similar reductions in his other stats.<br \/>\nThus his projected auction price derived from these stats is lower, too. Using the mixed 5&#215;5 where I did a mock draft last week as an example, Granderson&#8217;s price fell from $30.52 to $14.94 after applying the injury adjustments. That was a rather shallow league with a high replacement level, so Granderson missing a fair amount of time is a big hit.<br \/>\nI&#8217;ll be updating projections during the spring, incorporating new information as it comes in.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ve updated projections at RotoValue, incorporating the most recent releases of two outside systems, Steamer\/Razzball and CAIRO. In addition, I&#8217;ve updated my own RotoValue projections with playing time adjustments based on known injuries. For RotoValue, I scan injury reports looking for players known to miss time. Based on that report, I make an estimate of&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/2013\/03\/02\/updating-projections\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Updating Projections<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6,11,13],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=641"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/641\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=641"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=641"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.rotovalue.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=641"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}