Today I’m introducing a new projections source, which I’m calling RV Current. The idea is to use the same basic projection model I use in the preseason, but also include current year data in the model. The goal is a current “true talent” estimate for each player. So in addition to taking up to 3 years… Continue reading Introducing RV Current
On Monday, Nate Silver looked at the odds of winning a second-round playoff series after going 7 games to win the first round, and found that your chances to win go down: Original SRS odds: Miami 88 percent to win the series. Modified SRS odds: Miami 95 percent to win the series. Miami swept its… Continue reading Hedging Your Bets on the Nets?
I’ve done another forecast run, incorporating new injury information, like the recent UCL tear for David Hernandez, which unfortunately probably will end his season, and drops the Diamondbacks down a notch in my team totals. In addition, I’ve been tweaking how I deal with players with very limited MLB data. Now I will consider current… Continue reading Another 2014 Projection Update…
Nate Silver is live with his new FiveThirtyEight, and it being the start of the tournament, I looked at their model for help in filling out my own bracket. It’s quite a slick presentation, and you can see the probabilities of any team reaching any stage of the tournament. That’s all good! From that page,… Continue reading Inferring Conditional Probability from the FiveThirtyEight NCAA Model
I’ve been hacking on my projections model, and now have a first cut for 2014 available. In the process of projecting wins and saves I look at projected runs scored and allowed for each team, so in the table below I just take those projected runs and convert them to wins and losses. My model currently… Continue reading Polishing the Crystal Ball…
7 February 2014: I found a bug in the program that generated the second table, the one using wOBA – 0.020 for any players not forecast, so I’ve replaced the older table with a corrected version, and adjusted some of the other text to reflect that. I’ve just posted a comparison of nearly 20 different projection… Continue reading Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison
Update 7 February 2014: I’ve updated the post below to add an additional source, Rosenheck, and to correct a bug in my code generating the table for missing players. The original table incorrectly was computing RMSE and MAE of only the players projected by a system without including missing players at all, leaving a very… Continue reading Monster 2013 Projection Review
Thursday I compared five projection systems with their projections for weighted on base average. Today I’m looking at two different pitching categories, runs allowed per 9 innings (RA9) and WHIP, walks plus hits per innings pitched. Tom Tango kindly highlighted my post yesterday, but suggested that one of my charts was useless, because it did… Continue reading 2013 Projection Systems Review: RA9 and WHIP
In each of the past two years, I’ve compared different baseball projections systems by looking at aggregate errors. In 2013, I had access to these projection systems: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Marcel – the basic projection model from Tom Tango, coauthor of The Book. This year I’m using Marcel numbers generated by… Continue reading 2013 Projection Systems Review: wOBA
Murray Chass wonders why so many players who received Hall of Fame votes last year saw their vote totals drop this year: How does a writer put an ‘x’ in the box next to a player’s name last year, silently saying he belongs in the Hall, and then this year declaring with an empty box this… Continue reading The Case of the Missing Votes – Solved!