I’ve run the first version of my 2015 NBA Stat projections. There are two versions, RotoValue and AdjRotoValue. My model starts with a weighted average of recent performance, adds regression to a per-position mean, and applies an aging adjustment (very young players will, other things being equal, tend to improve, while older ones will tend… Continue reading 2015 NBA Projections Take 1
Category: Projections
2014 Fantasy All Stars
It’s easy to find lists of the best players in fantasy baseball. Lots of people have opinions on the matter, and plenty use formulas and models to rank players. Clayton Kershaw is baseball’s best starter, and was likely the most valuable pitcher in almost any format. Mike Trout was also outstanding, and while not clearly the best position player… Continue reading 2014 Fantasy All Stars
When the hurling Buehrle's won… or perhaps why!
Blue Jays’ starter Mark Buehrle is off to a great start so far this season, leading the majors with 6 wins, with an ERA of 1.91. While not as impressive as his ERA, Buehrle’s FIP, fielding-independent pitching, is a still-excellent 3.04, which would be a career best by nearly half a run, and is more… Continue reading When the hurling Buehrle's won… or perhaps why!
Introducing RV Current
Today I’m introducing a new projections source, which I’m calling RV Current. The idea is to use the same basic projection model I use in the preseason, but also include current year data in the model. The goal is a current “true talent” estimate for each player. So in addition to taking up to 3 years… Continue reading Introducing RV Current
Improving Future Statistics
While we can’t know the future, we can make educated guesses and projections about it. RotoValue does this by displaying projected stats (both my own projections, and for baseball, projections contributed from outside sources, Steamer, Marcel, and MORPS), and also by letting you choose prorated stats for the current year or the previous year. When I first… Continue reading Improving Future Statistics
Another 2014 Projection Update…
I’ve done another forecast run, incorporating new injury information, like the recent UCL tear for David Hernandez, which unfortunately probably will end his season, and drops the Diamondbacks down a notch in my team totals. In addition, I’ve been tweaking how I deal with players with very limited MLB data. Now I will consider current… Continue reading Another 2014 Projection Update…
2014 MLB Projections Update
I’ve updated my 2014 MLB projections, incorporating more recent injury and depth chart information into my playing time estimates. Of course, since the season is two games old for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, this isn’t entirely “fair” – usually I’d want preseason forecasts to be entirely preseason. But with a full week before other games,… Continue reading 2014 MLB Projections Update
Going 9 Expert Draft
Last night I took part in the Going 9 Experts League draft. We started late (11:00 PM EDT), but the event was fast and fun. We drafted a total of 300 players in under 140 minutes, so it went much faster than my auctions do. The league is a 5×5 12-team mixed league, drafting a… Continue reading Going 9 Expert Draft
Polishing the Crystal Ball…
I’ve been hacking on my projections model, and now have a first cut for 2014 available. In the process of projecting wins and saves I look at projected runs scored and allowed for each team, so in the table below I just take those projected runs and convert them to wins and losses. My model currently… Continue reading Polishing the Crystal Ball…
Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison
7 February 2014: I found a bug in the program that generated the second table, the one using wOBA – 0.020 for any players not forecast, so I’ve replaced the older table with a corrected version, and adjusted some of the other text to reflect that. I’ve just posted a comparison of nearly 20 different projection… Continue reading Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison