2014 MLB Projections Update

I’ve updated my 2014 MLB projections, incorporating more recent injury and depth chart information into my playing time estimates. Of course, since the season is two games old for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, this isn’t entirely “fair” – usually I’d want preseason forecasts to be entirely preseason. But with a full week before other games,… Continue reading 2014 MLB Projections Update

Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison

7 February 2014: I found a bug in the program that generated the second table, the one using wOBA – 0.020 for any players not forecast, so I’ve replaced the older table with a corrected version, and adjusted some of the other text to reflect that. I’ve just posted a comparison of nearly 20 different projection… Continue reading Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison

2013 Projection Systems Review: RA9 and WHIP

Thursday I compared five projection systems with their projections for weighted on base average. Today I’m looking at two different pitching categories, runs allowed per 9 innings (RA9) and WHIP, walks plus hits per innings pitched. Tom Tango kindly highlighted my post yesterday, but suggested that one of my charts was useless, because it did… Continue reading 2013 Projection Systems Review: RA9 and WHIP

2013 Projection Systems Review: wOBA

In each of the past two years, I’ve compared different baseball projections systems by looking at aggregate errors. In 2013, I had access to these projection systems: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Marcel – the basic projection model from Tom Tango, coauthor of The Book. This year I’m using Marcel numbers generated by… Continue reading 2013 Projection Systems Review: wOBA

Comparing Replacement Level for Starters and Relievers

There was a discussion at Tom Tango’s blog which led to an interesting question: what’s the difference in effectiveness between a replacement-level starter and a replacement-level reliever? To answer this, you’d need to have some way of estimating replacement level for starters and relievers. Since I have a database with boxscore data since 2010, I… Continue reading Comparing Replacement Level for Starters and Relievers