In the past three years I’ve done reviews of baseball projections systems with actual data for those systems for which I could get data. Will Larson maintains a valuable site of projections from many different sources, and most of the sources I’m comparing are from that. As in the past, I’m computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE) for… Continue reading Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA
Category: Major League Baseball
Points-based scoring in MLB?
Tom Tango proposed a points system for MLB, allowing for ties and not using extra innings. He proposed giving each team 5 points to start. Extra inning games stayed at 5 points, treating them as a tie. If you win by 1, you get 1 more point; winning by 2 gets 3 more points, and winning by 3… Continue reading Points-based scoring in MLB?
2014 Fantasy All Stars
It’s easy to find lists of the best players in fantasy baseball. Lots of people have opinions on the matter, and plenty use formulas and models to rank players. Clayton Kershaw is baseball’s best starter, and was likely the most valuable pitcher in almost any format. Mike Trout was also outstanding, and while not clearly the best position player… Continue reading 2014 Fantasy All Stars
Adding More MLB Statistics
I’ve added some more basic statistics for baseball to the RotoValue system. For pitchers, I’ve added 2B allowed, 3B allowed, runs allowed, balks, and at bats against. For batters, I’ve added games started and intentional walks. You can chose these as scoring and/or (if you’re a RotoValue Analyst customer) display categories.
RotoValue Now Uses RotoWire Player News
The player news and analysis notes shown on RotoValue now come from RotoWire instead of RotoWorld. My feed provider for news, XML Team Solutions, contacted me Friday to let me know they had lost the ability to send RotoWorld data, but were now sending RotoWire instead. The RotoWorld data stopped coming in on Thursday, July… Continue reading RotoValue Now Uses RotoWire Player News
Who gains and loses if we #RedefineTheWin?
Wednesday I introduced a page comparing traditional wins and losses with those assigned by a points system proposed by Tom Tango. Tom agreed with my modification of run values, using -5 in win points and 10 in loss points. Today I’d like to highlight some of the biggest changes in record using this proposal would… Continue reading Who gains and loses if we #RedefineTheWin?
While Brian Kenny turned #KillTheWin into a Twitter meme, Tom Tango has proposed redefining it. Rather than using the old definition, he suggests computing “win points” and “loss points” for each game, and then giving the player with the most win points on the winning team a win, while the player with the most loss points on the losing… Continue reading #RedefineTheWin
When the hurling Buehrle's won… or perhaps why!
Blue Jays’ starter Mark Buehrle is off to a great start so far this season, leading the majors with 6 wins, with an ERA of 1.91. While not as impressive as his ERA, Buehrle’s FIP, fielding-independent pitching, is a still-excellent 3.04, which would be a career best by nearly half a run, and is more… Continue reading When the hurling Buehrle's won… or perhaps why!
Introducing RV Current
Today I’m introducing a new projections source, which I’m calling RV Current. The idea is to use the same basic projection model I use in the preseason, but also include current year data in the model. The goal is a current “true talent” estimate for each player. So in addition to taking up to 3 years… Continue reading Introducing RV Current
Minor League Data Now Available on RotoValue!
I’m happy to report that I’m now receiving minor league (and often foreign league) data from the Chadwick Baseball Bureau. Subscribers to RotoValue Analyst now can see minor league, fall, winter, and many foreign league statistics on RotoValue Player Detail pages. So you now don’t need to go to some other site to find minor… Continue reading Minor League Data Now Available on RotoValue!