Murray Chass wonders why so many players who received Hall of Fame votes last year saw their vote totals drop this year:
How does a writer put an ‘x’ in the box next to a player’s name last year, silently saying he belongs in the Hall, and then this year declaring with an empty box this player was not a Hall of Famer?
He then documents vote drops for Lee Smith and 15 other players. Yet Chass misses what is probably the biggest cause: the limit that voters can choose only 10 players.
To test this theory, I took a look at the data leokitty collected on public ballots for 2013 and 2014. For each writer in that dataset who voted both years, I counted the players who were dropped, and the players who were added. I matched 126 voters in both years in her data, 91 of whom dropped at least one player from their 2014 ballot. 74 of those voters used all 10 slots on their 2014 ballot, which means that they did not have room for any of the players they dropped. Two of the four voters using 9 slots dropped more than one player, so while they might have kept one vote from the prior year, they didn’t have room for all of them. And three of the four voters who used 8 slots had dropped more than two players. So just 12 voters in the public sample who dropped players had room to vote for all those they voted for last year.
As Lewie Pollis has shown, voters who make their ballots public do act somewhat differently than those whose ballots are private. Still, these 126 voters are 22% of all voters. In this sample, 87% of voters who dropped a player didn’t have room for all the players they voted for last year, and 81% of them didn’t have room for any of the dropped players because of the 10 player limit.
Of the 91 ballots which dropped a player, a total of 244 players were dropped, but 359 players were added. The ballots that dropped players had only 35 total empty spots, so thre wasn’t any room for 209 of the 244 players dropped (86%). Not surprisingly Greg Maddux was added by all 91 voters who dropped someone, while Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas were added by 86 voters each. Alan Trammell was the player most often dropped, by 28 voters, followed by Lee Smith and Edgar Martinez (22 each).
My full data is after the jump.
| Voter | Num | Dropped | Added |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Rubin | 10 | Lee Smith, Tim Raines, Dale Murphy | Frank Thomas, Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Andrew Baggarly | 10 | Larry Walker | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Barry Bloom | 10 | Mark McGwire, Alan Trammell, Rafael Palmeiro, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Jeff Bagwell, Tom Glavine |
| Barry Rozner | 10 | Mike Piazza | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Jack Morris, Tom Glavine |
| Barry Stanton | 8 | Alan Trammell, Mike Piazza, Bernie Williams, Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Bill Windler | 10 | Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Sammy Sosa | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Bob Elliot | 10 | Craig Biggio, Alan Trammell, Mike Piazza, Dale Murphy | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Tom Glavine |
| Bob Herzog | 10 | Tim Raines, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Bob Klapisch | 10 | Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez | Craig Biggio, Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Bob Nightengale | 10 | Alan Trammell, Rafael Palmeiro, Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Bob Sansevere | 10 | Mark McGwire, Craig Biggio, Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Brendan Roberts | 10 | Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Bruce Miles | 10 | Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Buster Olney | 10 | Mark McGwire, Dale Murphy, Sammy Sosa | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Carl Steward | 10 | Mark McGwire, Alan Trammell, Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Charley Waters | 6 | Jeff Bagwell | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux |
| Chaz Scoggins | 10 | Tim Raines, Dale Murphy, Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Chris Haft | 10 | Edgar Martinez, Dale Murphy | Alan Trammell, Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Dan Graziano | 8 | Alan Trammell | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Dan Shaughnessy | 5 | Alan Trammell, Tim Raines | Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux |
| Dave Perkins | 10 | Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, Rafael Palmeiro | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| David Lennon | 10 | Jack Morris | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Evan Grant | 10 | Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Dale Murphy, Lee Smith, Jack Morris | Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Gene Myers | 10 | Mike Piazza, Dale Murphy, Curt Schilling, Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Gerry Fraley | 10 | Tim Raines, Mike Piazza, Edgar Martinez, Lee Smith, Larry Walker | Alan Trammell, Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Gordon Edes | 10 | Craig Biggio, Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Tom Glavine |
| Hal Bodley | 4 | Craig Biggio, Fred McGriff | Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux |
| Henry Schulman | 10 | Dale Murphy, Curt Schilling, Lee Smith, Jack Morris | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Tom Glavine |
| Howard Bryant | 4 | Jeff Bagwell, Sandy Alomar Jr | Frank Thomas, Jack Morris, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux |
| Ian O’Connor | 10 | Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux |
| Jack Curry | 10 | Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Jack Magruder | 10 | Alan Trammell, Tim Raines | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux |
| Jack McCaffery | 9 | Alan Trammell, Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Jay Dunn | 10 | Alan Trammell, Bernie Williams, Jack Morris | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Lee Smith, Tom Glavine |
| Jayson Stark | 10 | Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Dale Murphy, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Jeff Blair | 9 | Larry Walker | Mark McGwire, Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Tom Glavine |
| Jeff Fletcher | 10 | Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa | Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Tom Glavine |
| Jerry Crasnick | 10 | Barry Bonds, Fred McGriff, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Dale Murphy, Jack Morris | Frank Thomas, Tim Raines, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Jerry Green | 10 | Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens | Craig Biggio, Frank Thomas, Tim Raines, Mike Piazza, Edgar Martinez, Greg Maddux, Lee Smith, Tom Glavine |
| Jim Caple | 10 | Mike Piazza, Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Jim Ingraham | 10 | Kenny Lofton | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Joe Christensen | 10 | Mark McGwire, Alan Trammell, Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Joe Henderson | 10 | Edgar Martinez | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Tom Glavine |
| Joe Posnanski | 10 | Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| John Delcos | 10 | Fred McGriff, Don Mattingly | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| John Perrotto | 10 | Alan Trammell, Mike Piazza, Edgar Martinez, Rafael Palmeiro | Craig Biggio, Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| John Shea | 10 | Alan Trammell | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Jack Morris, Tom Glavine |
| John Tomase | 10 | Jeff Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Dale Murphy | Mark McGwire, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Jon Becker | 10 | Craig Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Sammy Sosa | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Jon Heyman | 10 | Dale Murphy | Craig Biggio, Alan Trammell, Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Jose de Jesus Ortiz | 10 | Tim Raines, Dale Murphy, Lee Smith, Jack Morris, Sammy Sosa | Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Juan C Rodriguez | 10 | Curt Schilling, Lee Smith, Larry Walker | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Tom Glavine |
| Ken Davidoff | 10 | Craig Biggio, Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, Edgar Martinez, Kenny Lofton | Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Ken Rosenthal | 10 | Alan Trammell, Lee Smith, Fred McGriff | Craig Biggio, Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Kirby Arnold | 10 | Alan Trammell, Fred McGriff, Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Larry Stone | 10 | Alan Trammell, Curt Schilling, Larry Walker | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Lyle Spencer | 10 | Dale Murphy | Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Lynn Henning | 10 | Edgar Martinez | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Marc Maturo | 10 | Rafael Palmeiro, Dale Murphy | Mike Piazza, Edgar Martinez, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Tom Glavine |
| Mark Hale | 10 | Mark McGwire, Edgar Martinez, Kenny Lofton, Larry Walker | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Mark Purdy | 4 | Craig Biggio, Jack Morris, Tim Raines, Mike Piazza | Frank Thomas, Lee Smith, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux |
| Mark Saxon | 10 | Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Tom Glavine |
| Mike Hart | 8 | Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Tom Glavine |
| Mike Imrem | 10 | Jeff Bagwell, Lee Smith, Kenny Lofton | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Mike Lefkow | 10 | Rafael Palmeiro | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Mike Shalin | 10 | Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell, Sammy Sosa | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Monte Poole | 10 | Mike Piazza | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Nick Cafardo | 10 | Tim Raines, Jeff Bagwell, Sammy Sosa | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Tom Glavine |
| Pete Abraham | 10 | Alan Trammell, Barry Bonds | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Peter Botte | 10 | Edgar Martinez | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Tom Glavine |
| Peter Gammons | 10 | Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris, Larry Walker | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Peter Pascarelli | 9 | Alan Trammell | Frank Thomas, Tim Raines, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Richard Justice | 10 | Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Dale Murphy | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Rob Biertempfel | 6 | Curt Schilling, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines | Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux |
| Roch Kubatko | 10 | Alan Trammell, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Roger Mooney | 10 | Jeff Bagwell, Lee Smith, Larry Walker | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Scott Miller | 10 | Dale Murphy | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Curt Schilling, Tom Glavine |
| Steve Buckley | 10 | Fred McGriff | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Steven Goldman | 10 | Fred McGriff, Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Tom Glavine |
| Steven Marcus | 3 | Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, Roger Clemens | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux |
| TR Sullivan | 10 | Alan Trammell, Tim Raines, Sammy Sosa | Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Terrence Moore | 5 | Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines, Mike Piazza | Frank Thomas, Fred McGriff, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux |
| Tim Brown | 10 | Alan Trammell, Edgar Martinez | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Tim Cowlishaw | 10 | Mark McGwire | Craig Biggio, Frank Thomas, Mike Piazza, Greg Maddux |
| Tim Kawakami | 10 | Dale Murphy | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Tim Kurkijan | 10 | Edgar Martinez, Curt Schilling | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Tom Haudricourt | 9 | Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Tom Powers | 4 | Jeff Bagwell, Lee Smith | Frank Thomas, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux |
| Tom Singer | 8 | Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Larry Walker | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine |
| Tracy Ringolsby | 10 | Tim Raines, Dale Murphy | Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Troy Renck | 10 | Jack Morris | Frank Thomas, Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine |
| Added | Player |
|---|---|
| 91 | Greg Maddux |
| 86 | Tom Glavine |
| 86 | Frank Thomas |
| 28 | Mike Mussina |
| 17 | Jeff Kent |
| 9 | Mike Piazza |
| 7 | Craig Biggio |
| 7 | Jack Morris |
| 5 | Curt Schilling |
| 4 | Jeff Bagwell |
| 4 | Lee Smith |
| 3 | Alan Trammell |
| 3 | Tim Raines |
| 2 | Barry Bonds |
| 2 | Roger Clemens |
| 2 | Mark McGwire |
| 2 | Edgar Martinez |
| 1 | Fred McGriff |
| Dropped | Player |
|---|---|
| 28 | Alan Trammell |
| 22 | Lee Smith |
| 22 | Edgar Martinez |
| 20 | Dale Murphy |
| 18 | Jeff Bagwell |
| 17 | Tim Raines |
| 12 | Curt Schilling |
| 12 | Larry Walker |
| 12 | Mike Piazza |
| 11 | Sammy Sosa |
| 10 | Craig Biggio |
| 9 | Barry Bonds |
| 9 | Roger Clemens |
| 9 | Fred McGriff |
| 9 | Jack Morris |
| 8 | Rafael Palmeiro |
| 8 | Mark McGwire |
| 4 | Kenny Lofton |
| 2 | Bernie Williams |
| 1 | Sandy Alomar Jr |
| 1 | Don Mattingly |