Updating and Tweaking MLB Projections

I’ve uploaded the latest CAIRO projections, to version 0.5, and also tweaked my own projections with more recent injury information, among them the possibility that Mark Teixeira may be out until June.

In addition, I’ve decided to apply my injury adjustment to Marcel data. The injury adjustment reduces projected playing time for players by an arbitrary amount: I scan injury reports, and from them make an estimate of how much of the season a player is expected to miss, and I lower playing time accordingly. I’ve done this with my own projections for a few years,  but since Marcel is not doing other updates, it improves the value of Marcel. Rather than projecting Curtis Granderson for 531 AB, it now projects him for 425, as I estimate that Granderson will miss 20% of the season, which would have him returning in the first week of May.

After applying these changes I also reran my consensus forecasts, which now also include MORPS projections. The other projection sources already do try to playing time projection, so I don’t want to adjust those further. This should make the Marcel and consensus projections better indicators of how players may do in 2013.

About Geoff

Dad, hacker, fantasy sports entrepreneur.
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