I’ve previously described my process for projecting playing time, and I’ve done another update. After reviewing injury reports again, I’ve tweaked the part of the season some players are expected to miss, and then rerun the rest of the numbers, adjusting playing time totals so the season totals are plausible for each team. One big impact there is the Brewers’ recent signing of Kyle Lohse, who plugs a big hole in their rotation.
I’ve also found a mistake in my previous injury estimates, which I’ve corrected: David Ortiz is expected to start the season on the DL, and may indeed be out until May, but in my previous revision I had marked him to miss half the season, which is too much. Now I know why he was too low in my projections for the AL draft I did last weekend!
I apply the same injury adjustments to the Marcel projections I show, which should help improve their accuracy also. Combined with recent updates to MORPS and Steamer/Razzball projections, the RotoValue site’s projection data are greatly improved, just in time for the final weekend before opening day.
My two oldest leagues are having their auctions tomorrow and Saturday, and I’ll appreciate having updated data for them.