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- Expanded Filtering in Search
- Reviewing the FiveThirtyEight 2018 Election Forecasts
- Reverse Platoon Splits – Before and After
- Professional Standings Now Available on RotoValue
- One Player, Two Kinds of Stats: Handling Shohei Ohtani
- Fighting the Last War
- #FixTheWin
- Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual
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Category Archives: Sabermetrics
Hedging Your Bets on the Nets?
On Monday, Nate Silver looked at the odds of winning a second-round playoff series after going 7 games to win the first round, and found that your chances to win go down: Original SRS odds: Miami 88 percent to win … Continue reading
Posted in NBA Basketball, Sabermetrics
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Another 2014 Projection Update…
I’ve done another forecast run, incorporating new injury information, like the recent UCL tear for David Hernandez, which unfortunately probably will end his season, and drops the Diamondbacks down a notch in my team totals. In addition, I’ve been tweaking … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics
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Inferring Conditional Probability from the FiveThirtyEight NCAA Model
Nate Silver is live with his new FiveThirtyEight, and it being the start of the tournament, I looked at their model for help in filling out my own bracket. It’s quite a slick presentation, and you can see the probabilities … Continue reading
Posted in Sabermetrics, Software
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Polishing the Crystal Ball…
I’ve been hacking on my projections model, and now have a first cut for 2014 available. In the process of projecting wins and saves I look at projected runs scored and allowed for each team, so in the table below I … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics
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Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison
7 February 2014: I found a bug in the program that generated the second table, the one using wOBA – 0.020 for any players not forecast, so I’ve replaced the older table with a corrected version, and adjusted some of the … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics
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Monster 2013 Projection Review
Update 7 February 2014: I’ve updated the post below to add an additional source, Rosenheck, and to correct a bug in my code generating the table for missing players. The original table incorrectly was computing RMSE and MAE of only … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics
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2013 Projection Systems Review: RA9 and WHIP
Thursday I compared five projection systems with their projections for weighted on base average. Today I’m looking at two different pitching categories, runs allowed per 9 innings (RA9) and WHIP, walks plus hits per innings pitched. Tom Tango kindly highlighted … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics
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2013 Projection Systems Review: wOBA
In each of the past two years, I’ve compared different baseball projections systems by looking at aggregate errors. In 2013, I had access to these projection systems: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Marcel – the basic projection … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics
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The Case of the Missing Votes – Solved!
Murray Chass wonders why so many players who received Hall of Fame votes last year saw their vote totals drop this year: How does a writer put an ‘x’ in the box next to a player’s name last year, silently saying … Continue reading
Posted in Hall of Fame, Major League Baseball, Sabermetrics
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Comparing Replacement Level for Starters and Relievers
There was a discussion at Tom Tango’s blog which led to an interesting question: what’s the difference in effectiveness between a replacement-level starter and a replacement-level reliever? To answer this, you’d need to have some way of estimating replacement level … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Sabermetrics
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