Category Archives: Sabermetrics

Hedging Your Bets on the Nets?

Posted on 7 May, 2014 by Geoff

On Monday, Nate Silver looked at the odds of winning a second-round playoff series after going 7 games to win the first round, and found that your chances to win go down:  Original SRS odds: Miami 88 percent to win … Continue reading →

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Another 2014 Projection Update…

Posted on 28 March, 2014 by Geoff

I’ve done another forecast run, incorporating new injury information, like the recent UCL tear for David Hernandez, which unfortunately probably will end his season, and drops the Diamondbacks down a notch in my team totals. In addition, I’ve been tweaking … Continue reading →

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Inferring Conditional Probability from the FiveThirtyEight NCAA Model

Posted on 20 March, 2014 by Geoff

Nate Silver is live with his new FiveThirtyEight, and it being the start of the tournament, I looked at their model for help in filling out my own bracket. It’s quite a slick presentation, and you can see the probabilities … Continue reading →

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Polishing the Crystal Ball…

Posted on 19 March, 2014 by Geoff

I’ve been hacking on my projections model, and now have a first cut for 2014 available. In the process of projecting wins and saves I look at projected runs scored and allowed for each team, so in the table below I … Continue reading →

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Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison

Posted on 5 February, 2014 by Geoff

7 February 2014: I found a bug in the program that generated the second table, the one using wOBA – 0.020 for any players not forecast, so I’ve replaced the older table with a corrected version, and adjusted some of the … Continue reading →

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Monster 2013 Projection Review

Posted on 5 February, 2014 by Geoff

Update 7 February 2014: I’ve updated the post below to add an additional source, Rosenheck, and to correct a bug in my code generating the table for missing players. The original table incorrectly was computing RMSE and MAE of only … Continue reading →

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2013 Projection Systems Review: RA9 and WHIP

Posted on 31 January, 2014 by Geoff

Thursday I compared five projection systems with their projections for weighted on base average. Today I’m looking at two different pitching categories, runs allowed per 9 innings (RA9) and WHIP, walks plus hits per innings pitched. Tom Tango kindly highlighted … Continue reading →

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2013 Projection Systems Review: wOBA

Posted on 30 January, 2014 by Geoff

In each of the past two years, I’ve compared different baseball projections systems by looking at aggregate errors. In 2013, I had access to these projection systems: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Marcel – the basic projection … Continue reading →

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The Case of the Missing Votes – Solved!

Posted on 11 January, 2014 by Geoff

Murray Chass wonders why so many players who received Hall of Fame votes last year saw their vote totals drop this year: How does a writer put an ‘x’ in the box next to a player’s name last year, silently saying … Continue reading →

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Comparing Replacement Level for Starters and Relievers

Posted on 8 January, 2014 by Geoff

There was a discussion at Tom Tango’s blog which led to an interesting question: what’s the difference in effectiveness between a replacement-level starter and a replacement-level reliever? To answer this, you’d need to have some way of estimating replacement level … Continue reading →

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