Category Archives: Sabermetrics

MLB Crystal Ball 2021

Posted on 1 April, 2021 by Geoff

Today is opening day, the start of the new season. How will it end up? Using RotoValue player projections for each team, I’ve estimated win totals based on projected runs scored and runs allowed. Here are the standings: AL East … Continue reading →

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Reverse Platoon Splits – Before and After

Posted on 30 October, 2018 by Geoff

Tom Tango asked someone to see what players with at least a 30-point wOBA reverse platoon split in their first 2500 plate appearances did for the rest of their careers, and Sean Foreman kindly provided split data from his database. So I … Continue reading →

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#FixTheWin

Posted on 7 May, 2017 by Geoff

A few years back Brian Kenney introduced the hashtag #KillTheWin, which still lives on. Baseball fans point out egregious cases of a pitcher getting a win in a game despite pitching poorly. While the win might have been a useful … Continue reading →

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Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual

Posted on 2 March, 2017 by Geoff

Tom Tango asked an interesting question on Twitter yesterday: The odds of the projected HR leader actually leading the league is an interesting question. I’ve been doing projections since 2011, so I thought I’d sweep my database for the RotoValue … Continue reading →

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FiveThirtyEight Baseball Division Champs Puzzle

Posted on 29 May, 2016 by Geoff

Update: I’ve added a link to the Perl progam I used to do these simulations. Oliver Roeder presents a weekly puzzler on FiveThirtyEight, and this week it was a baseball-themed puzzle. Assume a sport (say, “baseball”) in which each team plays 162 games … Continue reading →

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Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP

Posted on 14 February, 2015 by Geoff

Yesterday I ran comparisons of several projections systems for an all-inclusive batting statistic, wOBA. Today I’m running the same tests, computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), for two commonly used fantasy statistics, ERA and WHIP. These tests are bias-adjusted, … Continue reading →

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Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA

Posted on 13 February, 2015 by Geoff

In the past three years I’ve done reviews of baseball projections systems with actual data for those systems for which I could get data. Will Larson maintains a valuable site of projections from many different sources, and most of the sources I’m comparing are … Continue reading →

Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics | 2 Comments

Points-based scoring in MLB?

Posted on 15 November, 2014 by Geoff

Tom Tango proposed a points system for MLB, allowing for ties and not using extra innings. He proposed giving each team 5 points to start. Extra inning games stayed at 5 points, treating them as a tie. If you win by 1, … Continue reading →

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Who gains and loses if we #RedefineTheWin?

Posted on 24 May, 2014 by Geoff

Wednesday I introduced a page comparing traditional wins and losses with those assigned by a points system proposed by Tom Tango. Tom agreed with my modification of run values, using -5 in win points and 10 in loss points. Today … Continue reading →

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#RedefineTheWin

Posted on 21 May, 2014 by Geoff

While Brian Kenny turned #KillTheWin into a Twitter meme, Tom Tango has proposed redefining it. Rather than using the old definition, he suggests computing “win points” and “loss points” for each game, and then giving the player with the most win points on the … Continue reading →

Posted in Major League Baseball, Sabermetrics | 4 Comments