Category Archives: Sabermetrics

Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual

Tom Tango asked an interesting question on Twitter yesterday: The odds of the projected HR leader actually leading the league is an interesting question. I’ve been doing projections since 2011, so I thought I’d sweep my database for the RotoValue … Continue reading

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FiveThirtyEight Baseball Division Champs Puzzle

Update: I’ve added a link to the Perl progam I used to do these simulations. Oliver Roeder presents a weekly puzzler on FiveThirtyEight, and this week it was a baseball-themed puzzle. Assume a sport (say, “baseball”) in which each team plays 162 games … Continue reading

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Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP

Yesterday I ran comparisons of several projections systems for an all-inclusive batting statistic, wOBA. Today I’m running the same tests, computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), for two commonly used fantasy statistics, ERA and WHIP. These tests are bias-adjusted, … Continue reading

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Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA

In the past three years I’ve done reviews of baseball projections systems with actual data for those systems for which I could get data. Will Larson maintains a valuable site of projections from many different sources, and most of the sources I’m comparing are … Continue reading

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Points-based scoring in MLB?

Tom Tango proposed a points system for MLB, allowing for ties and not using extra innings. He proposed giving each team 5 points to start. Extra inning games stayed at 5 points, treating them as a tie. If you win by 1, … Continue reading

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Who gains and loses if we #RedefineTheWin?

Wednesday I introduced a page comparing traditional wins and losses with those assigned by a points system proposed by Tom Tango. Tom agreed with my modification of run values, using -5 in win points and 10 in loss points. Today … Continue reading

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#RedefineTheWin

While Brian Kenny turned #KillTheWin into a Twitter meme, Tom Tango has proposed redefining it. Rather than using the old definition, he suggests computing “win points” and “loss points” for each game, and then giving the player with the most win points on the … Continue reading

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Introducing RV Current

Today I’m introducing a new projections source, which I’m calling RV Current. The idea is to use the same basic projection model I use in the preseason, but also include current year data in the model. The goal is a current … Continue reading

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Hedging Your Bets on the Nets?

On Monday, Nate Silver looked at the odds of winning a second-round playoff series after going 7 games to win the first round, and found that your chances to win go down:  Original SRS odds: Miami 88 percent to win … Continue reading

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Another 2014 Projection Update…

I’ve done another forecast run, incorporating new injury information, like the recent UCL tear for David Hernandez, which unfortunately probably will end his season, and drops the Diamondbacks down a notch in my team totals. In addition, I’ve been tweaking … Continue reading

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