Category Archives: Projections

Another 2014 Projection Update…

Posted on 28 March, 2014 by Geoff

I’ve done another forecast run, incorporating new injury information, like the recent UCL tear for David Hernandez, which unfortunately probably will end his season, and drops the Diamondbacks down a notch in my team totals. In addition, I’ve been tweaking … Continue reading →

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2014 MLB Projections Update

Posted on 26 March, 2014 by Geoff

I’ve updated my 2014 MLB projections, incorporating more recent injury and depth chart information into my playing time estimates. Of course, since the season is two games old for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, this isn’t entirely “fair” – usually I’d … Continue reading →

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Going 9 Expert Draft

Posted on 21 March, 2014 by Geoff

Last night I took part in the Going 9 Experts League draft. We started late (11:00 PM EDT), but the event was fast and fun. We drafted a total of 300 players in under 140 minutes, so it went much … Continue reading →

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Polishing the Crystal Ball…

Posted on 19 March, 2014 by Geoff

I’ve been hacking on my projections model, and now have a first cut for 2014 available. In the process of projecting wins and saves I look at projected runs scored and allowed for each team, so in the table below I … Continue reading →

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Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison

Posted on 5 February, 2014 by Geoff

7 February 2014: I found a bug in the program that generated the second table, the one using wOBA – 0.020 for any players not forecast, so I’ve replaced the older table with a corrected version, and adjusted some of the … Continue reading →

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Monster 2013 Projection Review

Posted on 5 February, 2014 by Geoff

Update 7 February 2014: I’ve updated the post below to add an additional source, Rosenheck, and to correct a bug in my code generating the table for missing players. The original table incorrectly was computing RMSE and MAE of only … Continue reading →

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2013 Projection Systems Review: RA9 and WHIP

Posted on 31 January, 2014 by Geoff

Thursday I compared five projection systems with their projections for weighted on base average. Today I’m looking at two different pitching categories, runs allowed per 9 innings (RA9) and WHIP, walks plus hits per innings pitched. Tom Tango kindly highlighted … Continue reading →

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2013 Projection Systems Review: wOBA

Posted on 30 January, 2014 by Geoff

In each of the past two years, I’ve compared different baseball projections systems by looking at aggregate errors. In 2013, I had access to these projection systems: CAIRO – from S B of the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog. Marcel – the basic projection … Continue reading →

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Initial 2014 NBA Projections – Lillard Stands Out

Posted on 15 October, 2013 by Geoff

I’ve completed the first cut NBA projections for 2013-2014, and was surprised to see second-year Blazers point guard Damian Lillard rank 4th in overall RotoValue for both an 8 category and 9 category format. Last year’s rookie of the year was a good … Continue reading →

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Busts at the Break

Posted on 19 July, 2013 by Geoff

This week I selected AL and NL fantasy all-star teams – players who exceeded preseason expectations by the largest amount. Not always the best players (although Chris Davis was close), they’re guys whose performance has been worth much more than you’d have expected … Continue reading →

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