Category Archives: Projections

2014 Fantasy All Stars

It’s easy to find lists of the best players in fantasy baseball. Lots of people have opinions on the matter, and plenty use formulas and models to rank players. Clayton Kershaw is baseball’s best starter, and was likely the most valuable pitcher … Continue reading

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When the hurling Buehrle’s won… or perhaps why!

Blue Jays’ starter Mark Buehrle is off to a great start so far this season, leading the majors with 6 wins, with an ERA of 1.91. While not as impressive as his ERA, Buehrle’s FIP, fielding-independent pitching, is a still-excellent … Continue reading

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Introducing RV Current

Today I’m introducing a new projections source, which I’m calling RV Current. The idea is to use the same basic projection model I use in the preseason, but also include current year data in the model. The goal is a current … Continue reading

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Improving Future Statistics

While we can’t know the future, we can make educated guesses and projections about it. RotoValue does this by displaying projected stats (both my own projections, and for baseball, projections contributed from outside sources, Steamer, Marcel, and MORPS), and also by … Continue reading

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Another 2014 Projection Update…

I’ve done another forecast run, incorporating new injury information, like the recent UCL tear for David Hernandez, which unfortunately probably will end his season, and drops the Diamondbacks down a notch in my team totals. In addition, I’ve been tweaking … Continue reading

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2014 MLB Projections Update

I’ve updated my 2014 MLB projections, incorporating more recent injury and depth chart information into my playing time estimates. Of course, since the season is two games old for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, this isn’t entirely “fair” – usually I’d … Continue reading

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Going 9 Expert Draft

Last night I took part in the Going 9 Experts League draft. We started late (11:00 PM EDT), but the event was fast and fun. We drafted a total of 300 players in under 140 minutes, so it went much … Continue reading

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Polishing the Crystal Ball…

I’ve been hacking on my projections model, and now have a first cut for 2014 available. In the process of projecting wins and saves I look at projected runs scored and allowed for each team, so in the table below I … Continue reading

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Expanded 2013 wOBA Projections Comparison

7 February 2014: I found a bug in the program that generated the second table, the one using wOBA – 0.020 for any players not forecast, so I’ve replaced the older table with a corrected version, and adjusted some of the … Continue reading

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Monster 2013 Projection Review

Update 7 February 2014: I’ve updated the post below to add an additional source, Rosenheck, and to correct a bug in my code generating the table for missing players. The original table incorrectly was computing RMSE and MAE of only … Continue reading

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