Category Archives: Major League Baseball

Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual

Tom Tango asked an interesting question on Twitter yesterday: The odds of the projected HR leader actually leading the league is an interesting question. I’ve been doing projections since 2011, so I thought I’d sweep my database for the RotoValue … Continue reading

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FiveThirtyEight Baseball Division Champs Puzzle

Update: I’ve added a link to the Perl progam I used to do these simulations. Oliver Roeder presents a weekly puzzler on FiveThirtyEight, and this week it was a baseball-themed puzzle. Assume a sport (say, “baseball”) in which each team plays 162 games … Continue reading

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Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP

Yesterday I ran comparisons of several projections systems for an all-inclusive batting statistic, wOBA. Today I’m running the same tests, computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), for two commonly used fantasy statistics, ERA and WHIP. These tests are bias-adjusted, … Continue reading

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Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA

In the past three years I’ve done reviews of baseball projections systems with actual data for those systems for which I could get data. Will Larson maintains a valuable site of projections from many different sources, and most of the sources I’m comparing are … Continue reading

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Points-based scoring in MLB?

Tom Tango proposed a points system for MLB, allowing for ties and not using extra innings. He proposed giving each team 5 points to start. Extra inning games stayed at 5 points, treating them as a tie. If you win by 1, … Continue reading

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2014 Fantasy All Stars

It’s easy to find lists of the best players in fantasy baseball. Lots of people have opinions on the matter, and plenty use formulas and models to rank players. Clayton Kershaw is baseball’s best starter, and was likely the most valuable pitcher … Continue reading

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Adding More MLB Statistics

I’ve added some more basic statistics for baseball to the RotoValue system. For pitchers, I’ve added 2B allowed, 3B allowed, runs allowed, balks, and at bats against. For batters, I’ve added games started and intentional walks. You can chose these … Continue reading

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RotoValue Now Uses RotoWire Player News

The player news and analysis notes shown on RotoValue now come from RotoWire instead of RotoWorld. My feed provider for news, XML Team Solutions, contacted me Friday to let me know they had lost the ability to send RotoWorld data, … Continue reading

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Who gains and loses if we #RedefineTheWin?

Wednesday I introduced a page comparing traditional wins and losses with those assigned by a points system proposed by Tom Tango. Tom agreed with my modification of run values, using -5 in win points and 10 in loss points. Today … Continue reading

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#RedefineTheWin

While Brian Kenny turned #KillTheWin into a Twitter meme, Tom Tango has proposed redefining it. Rather than using the old definition, he suggests computing “win points” and “loss points” for each game, and then giving the player with the most win points on the … Continue reading

Posted in Major League Baseball, Sabermetrics | 4 Comments