Author Archives: Geoff

About Geoff

Dad, hacker, fantasy sports entrepreneur.

Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP

Yesterday I ran comparisons of several projections systems for an all-inclusive batting statistic, wOBA. Today I’m running the same tests, computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), for two commonly used fantasy statistics, ERA and WHIP. These tests are bias-adjusted, … Continue reading

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Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA

In the past three years I’ve done reviews of baseball projections systems with actual data for those systems for which I could get data. Will Larson maintains a valuable site of projections from many different sources, and most of the sources I’m comparing are … Continue reading

Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics | 2 Comments

RV Current for NBA

Similar to what I’ve done with baseball, I’m now running new projections daily for NBA players under the name RV Current. These projections add current year data into the model, increasing the weight given to the current season as more … Continue reading

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Points-based scoring in MLB?

Tom Tango proposed a points system for MLB, allowing for ties and not using extra innings. He proposed giving each team 5 points to start. Extra inning games stayed at 5 points, treating them as a tie. If you win by 1, … Continue reading

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Tracking Injuries…

I’ve just rolled out some enhancements to RotoValue’s handling of injury reports. Now in addition to displaying reports, and highlighting the injury on player searches, I’ve added a new field, called Target Return:

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2015 NBA Projections Take 1

I’ve run the first version of my 2015 NBA Stat projections. There are two versions, RotoValue and AdjRotoValue. My model starts with a weighted average of recent performance, adds regression to a per-position mean, and applies an aging adjustment (very … Continue reading

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2014 Fantasy All Stars

It’s easy to find lists of the best players in fantasy baseball. Lots of people have opinions on the matter, and plenty use formulas and models to rank players. Clayton Kershaw is baseball’s best starter, and was likely the most valuable pitcher … Continue reading

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Adding More MLB Statistics

I’ve added some more basic statistics for baseball to the RotoValue system. For pitchers, I’ve added 2B allowed, 3B allowed, runs allowed, balks, and at bats against. For batters, I’ve added games started and intentional walks. You can chose these … Continue reading

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RotoValue Now Uses RotoWire Player News

The player news and analysis notes shown on RotoValue now come from RotoWire instead of RotoWorld. My feed provider for news, XML Team Solutions, contacted me Friday to let me know they had lost the ability to send RotoWorld data, … Continue reading

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Who gains and loses if we #RedefineTheWin?

Wednesday I introduced a page comparing traditional wins and losses with those assigned by a points system proposed by Tom Tango. Tom agreed with my modification of run values, using -5 in win points and 10 in loss points. Today … Continue reading

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