Author Archives: Geoff

About Geoff

Dad, hacker, fantasy sports entrepreneur.

Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual

Tom Tango asked an interesting question on Twitter yesterday: The odds of the projected HR leader actually leading the league is an interesting question. I’ve been doing projections since 2011, so I thought I’d sweep my database for the RotoValue … Continue reading

Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics | Comments Off on Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual

Count von Count Riddler

I periodically attempt the FiveThirtyEight Riddler, edited by Oliver Roeder. This week he’s actually presenting two, a shorter “Riddler Express”, and a more time consuming “Riddler Classic”. The Sesame Street character Count von Count likes to, well, count, and he … Continue reading

Posted in Riddler | Comments Off on Count von Count Riddler

Pirate Riddler

This week’s FiveThirtyEight Riddler is a logic puzzle. Assume 10 “Perfectly Rational Pirate Logicians”. The pirates have found 10 gold pieces, and the puzzle is to figure out how they will allocate the loot among themselves. There are several constraints. First, the … Continue reading

Posted in Riddler | Comments Off on Pirate Riddler

FiveThirtyEight Baseball Division Champs Puzzle

Update: I’ve added a link to the Perl progam I used to do these simulations. Oliver Roeder presents a weekly puzzler on FiveThirtyEight, and this week it was a baseball-themed puzzle. Assume a sport (say, “baseball”) in which each team plays 162 games … Continue reading

Posted in Major League Baseball, Riddler, Sabermetrics | Comments Off on FiveThirtyEight Baseball Division Champs Puzzle

Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP

Yesterday I ran comparisons of several projections systems for an all-inclusive batting statistic, wOBA. Today I’m running the same tests, computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), for two commonly used fantasy statistics, ERA and WHIP. These tests are bias-adjusted, … Continue reading

Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics | Comments Off on Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP

Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA

In the past three years I’ve done reviews of baseball projections systems with actual data for those systems for which I could get data. Will Larson maintains a valuable site of projections from many different sources, and most of the sources I’m comparing are … Continue reading

Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics | 2 Comments

RV Current for NBA

Similar to what I’ve done with baseball, I’m now running new projections daily for NBA players under the name RV Current. These projections add current year data into the model, increasing the weight given to the current season as more … Continue reading

Posted in NBA Basketball, Projections | Comments Off on RV Current for NBA

Points-based scoring in MLB?

Tom Tango proposed a points system for MLB, allowing for ties and not using extra innings. He proposed giving each team 5 points to start. Extra inning games stayed at 5 points, treating them as a tie. If you win by 1, … Continue reading

Posted in Major League Baseball, Sabermetrics | Comments Off on Points-based scoring in MLB?

Tracking Injuries…

I’ve just rolled out some enhancements to RotoValue’s handling of injury reports. Now in addition to displaying reports, and highlighting the injury on player searches, I’ve added a new field, called Target Return:

Posted in NBA Basketball, Projections, RotoValue | Comments Off on Tracking Injuries…

2015 NBA Projections Take 1

I’ve run the first version of my 2015 NBA Stat projections. There are two versions, RotoValue and AdjRotoValue. My model starts with a weighted average of recent performance, adds regression to a per-position mean, and applies an aging adjustment (very … Continue reading

Posted in NBA Basketball, Projections, RotoValue | Comments Off on 2015 NBA Projections Take 1