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Author Archives: Geoff
Fighting the Last War
This week’s Riddler at FiveThirtyEight reruns a puzzle initially run back in February. The game is a “war” between two warlords fighting over 10 castles. Each warlord has 100 soldiers, and the 10 castles are worth from 1 to 10 points each. … Continue reading
#FixTheWin
A few years back Brian Kenney introduced the hashtag #KillTheWin, which still lives on. Baseball fans point out egregious cases of a pitcher getting a win in a game despite pitching poorly. While the win might have been a useful … Continue reading
Posted in Sabermetrics
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Comparing Projected HR leaders to actual
Tom Tango asked an interesting question on Twitter yesterday: The odds of the projected HR leader actually leading the league is an interesting question. I’ve been doing projections since 2011, so I thought I’d sweep my database for the RotoValue … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics
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Count von Count Riddler
I periodically attempt the FiveThirtyEight Riddler, edited by Oliver Roeder. This week he’s actually presenting two, a shorter “Riddler Express”, and a more time consuming “Riddler Classic”. The Sesame Street character Count von Count likes to, well, count, and he … Continue reading
Posted in Riddler
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Pirate Riddler
This week’s FiveThirtyEight Riddler is a logic puzzle. Assume 10 “Perfectly Rational Pirate Logicians”. The pirates have found 10 gold pieces, and the puzzle is to figure out how they will allocate the loot among themselves. There are several constraints. First, the … Continue reading
Posted in Riddler
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FiveThirtyEight Baseball Division Champs Puzzle
Update: I’ve added a link to the Perl progam I used to do these simulations. Oliver Roeder presents a weekly puzzler on FiveThirtyEight, and this week it was a baseball-themed puzzle. Assume a sport (say, “baseball”) in which each team plays 162 games … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Riddler, Sabermetrics
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Comparing 2014 Projections – ERA and WHIP
Yesterday I ran comparisons of several projections systems for an all-inclusive batting statistic, wOBA. Today I’m running the same tests, computing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), for two commonly used fantasy statistics, ERA and WHIP. These tests are bias-adjusted, … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics
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Comparing 2014 Projections – wOBA
In the past three years I’ve done reviews of baseball projections systems with actual data for those systems for which I could get data. Will Larson maintains a valuable site of projections from many different sources, and most of the sources I’m comparing are … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Projections, Sabermetrics
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RV Current for NBA
Similar to what I’ve done with baseball, I’m now running new projections daily for NBA players under the name RV Current. These projections add current year data into the model, increasing the weight given to the current season as more … Continue reading
Posted in NBA Basketball, Projections
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Points-based scoring in MLB?
Tom Tango proposed a points system for MLB, allowing for ties and not using extra innings. He proposed giving each team 5 points to start. Extra inning games stayed at 5 points, treating them as a tie. If you win by 1, … Continue reading
Posted in Major League Baseball, Sabermetrics
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