2014 MLB Projections Update

I’ve updated my 2014 MLB projections, incorporating more recent injury and depth chart information into my playing time estimates.

Of course, since the season is two games old for the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, this isn’t entirely “fair” – usually I’d want preseason forecasts to be entirely preseason. But with a full week before other games, I also don’t want to ignore more recent news for owners who have yet to draft. So I’ve settled on a compromise: I’m keeping my original projections visible on the site, but I’ve renamed them from RotoValue to RV Pre-Australia. Those numbers were my last run before any games started.

But I’ve rerun the numbers again, and am giving these newer number the label “RotoValue”.  I avoided doing any injury updates affecting Dodgers or Diamondbacks, but did incorporate adjustments for other players (like young Rangers’ infielder Jurickson Profar, who is now expected to miss 10-12 weeks). Profar is a good example of this, as on his profile page you can compare these projections. His rate stats don’t change, but where I had projected Profar for 415 AB, I now project just 162.

Here’s an updated standings projection (links to team projections):

AL East Won Lost RS RA
Rays 88 74 710 651
Red Sox 86 76 734 687
Yankees 82 80 687 679
Blue Jays 82 80 732 724
Orioles 78 84 704 730
AL Central Won Lost RS RA
Tigers 92 70 743 653
Indians 79 83 704 718
White Sox 76 86 669 708
Royals 76 86 676 717
Twins 67 95 643 759
AL West Won Lost RS RA
Athletics 87 75 722 670
Angels 86 76 724 685
Mariners 85 77 694 663
Rangers 84 78 726 702
Astros 76 86 674 720
NL East Won Lost RS RA
Nationals 91 71 703 620
Braves 85 77 699 666
Marlins 79 83 641 662
Phillies 76 86 642 686
Mets 75 87 656 707
NL Central Won Lost RS RA
Cardinals 91 71 722 640
Reds 86 76 695 651
Brewers 82 80 697 690
Pirates 78 84 657 685
Cubs 67 95 596 715
NL West Won Lost RS RA
Dodgers 87 75 676 626
Giants 80 82 635 645
Diamondbacks 78 84 668 696
Rockies 77 85 693 729
Padres 76 86 635 674

These are largely the same as my previous projections. Now the Mariners slide to 3rd in the AL West, which still projects as the closest race, with four teams separated by three games, but the Tigers, Cardinals, and Nationals still project to have the most wins, while the Cubs and Twins project to have the fewest.

About Geoff

Dad, hacker, fantasy sports entrepreneur.
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