RotoValue

Here’s the RotoValue top 6 NBA players in 8 category value for Week 5:

Kevin Love was a beast in 4 games, leading the league in scoring, shooting 58.6% from the floor, 82.9% from the line, and averaging nearly 13 rebounds a game, to go with 10 3s. Love doesn’t block much for a big guy, but when he’s scoring and rebounding like this, his owners don’t care.

Deron Williams combined high scoring with a lot of assists and 11 3s to rank 2nd on the week, just ahead Celtics teammates Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett. Pierce averaged 22.25 points, 6.75 boards, and 7.5 dimes, contributing across the board. Garnett didn’t score that much, and he didn’t hit a 3 all week, but he tied for the league lead in steals, had almost as many blocks, and didn’t miss a free throw in 13 attempts.

Rounding out the top 5, er, 6, was a tie between Stephen Curry and Brandon Jennings. Curry had an especially fine week, making the top 5 despite playing just 3 games, as he had 9 steals, 10 3s, and shot much better from the floor than Jennings.

Conspicuous by his absence was LeBron James. The King’s cumulative totals were a bit down from his seasonal averages, and his FG% on the week was “only” 48.8%, and he ranked #7, at $44.43, a bit behind Jennings and Curry.

The schedule kept Kevin Durant and Kobe Bryant out of the top 5, as both only had 3 games in the week, lowering their cumulative totals.

The top 9-category players are mostly the same:

Love is still a clear #1. Brandon Jennings moves up to #2, pulling ahead of Stephen Curry because of one less turnover on the week. Paul Pierce led the league with 21 turnovers, so he dropped out, replaced by Joakim Noah, who qualifies at center, rebounded quite well, and had just 5 turnovers. LeBron dropped further in the weekly rankings because he turned the ball over 19 times last week.

Looking ahead to week 6, both Memphis and Detroit play 5 times, so Marc Gasol, Greg Monroe, and Rudy Gay should get a nice boost.

Who were the best NBA fantasy players for week 4? RotoValue can tell you.

The top 5 in an 8-category league:

LeBron James has been the clear fantasy MVP, and week 4 he again heads the list by a wide margin, averaging 30 points, 7 assists, 8.75 rebounds, 2.25 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game, combined with good shooting, 53% from the floor, and 78.9% from the line. It’s interesting that those numbers are not very different from his season-long averages. This week, an average week from LeBron was much better than anyone else. While James didn’t hit a 3 in his first 2 weeks (missing both he took), now he’s shooting from downtown again, and indeed made 6 of 10 shots from deep.

The next two players rank highly due to hot FG shooting, as Mike Conley hit 69.6% from the floor, and Marc Gasol made 67.4%. Both players averaged close to 20 points per game on the week, but Conley’s strong assist totals and good rebounding for a guard made him a little more valuable than Gasol’s strong rebounding and good assists for a center.

Wizards PG John Wall finally had the breakout his owners have been expecting, averaging nearly 26 points, plus 8 rebounds and 8 assists each. He took 45 FT on the week, 2nd behind only Blake Griffin, making them at an 86.7% clip, making him the most valuable player from the line in the league. He shot 43.2% from the floor, which pulled down his overall value, but also raised his season-long FG% to almost 41%.

Rounding out the top 5 was DeAndre Jordan, taking advantage of a 5 game week to post larger cumulative totals in rebounds and a league-leading 15 blocks. Jordan didn’t shoot much, but when he did, it went in nearly 72% of the time. And while his FT shooting is bad, he took just 9 attempts, and so didn’t hurt that much in the category.

9-category  value is almost identical:

Now Joe Johnson, who was 6th overall, just behind DeAndre Jordan in 8-category rankings, moves up to 4th replacing John Wall, who dropped to 7th overall with 14 turnovers. Johnson had just 6 turnovers in 4 games, and did pretty much everything well – outstanding FT shooting (albeit just 12 attempts), nice scoring, a few rebounds, assists, and one steal and block each per game.

Marc Gasol’s value now almost catches Mike Conley’s, as Gasol had fewer turnovers than Conley, and both inch a little closer to LeBron James, but James remains a clear #1.

The abbreviated NBA season is now under way, so with two week of games in the books, let’s take a look at the top players so far for an 8-category league:

The RotoValue prices are for a 10 team league, using a $200 salary cap for 11 players per team (start 3 guards, 3 forwards, and 2 centers, with a 3 man bench). The 8 scoring categories are points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3 pointers, FG%, and FT%.

LeBron James heads the list, which doesn’t seem surprising, but on further reflection is more notable than it appears. The table is based on cumulative totals, and James has played just 8 games so far, 2 fewer than Kevin Durant or Kobe Bryant. James sat out one game  last week with an ankle injury, but returned to play 37 minutes against the Nets. Not only has James played less than many other stars, he’s also surprisingly not shooting from long range yet. James has not made a single 3 pointer all year! Indeed despite averaging over 3.5 3 point attempts per game last season, and 5 the previous year, James has taken just 2 three point shots in 8 games. Still, despite contributing nothing in one category, King James is still easily the most valuable fantasy player this year. He’s leading the league in scoring average, is tied for 4th in steals per game, and is 9th in assists per game. But the biggest change is that he’s shooting an amazing 60.1% from the floor, higher even than Dwight Howard. Some of this is because he’s not shooting 3s: last season he hit 55.2% of 2 point shots, and made 56% the year before. But James’s 2 point shooting is still about 5% better than it has been in recent years. Also, his current FT% is the highest of his professional career.

Kevin Durant is next, posting numbers similar to his recent career past. His free throw shooting and scoring are down a little, but he still fills the stat sheet across the board.

Kevin Love is #3, and has improved 5 points per game in scoring, and he’s now averaging over a steal per game, and is also blocking shots more often than last year, while continuing to grab 15 rebounds a game.

Dwight Howard continues to struggle at the free throw line, which holds back his value, and for the first time in several years he’s not the best player in field goal percentage, as LeBron James is shooting higher, and has far more attempts.

Kobe Bryant’s wrist injury is certainly a concern, but he’s not missed a game yet. The wrist might be affecting his shooting a bit: he’s made just 20% of 3 point attempts, down from 32.3%, and his FG% and FT% are down slightly from recent seasons, but he’s producing a bit more in the cumulative categories (except for 3 pointers made and steals).

Pau Gasol nearly matches Bryant’s overall value because of his strong FG%, much better rebound and block numbers balance Bryant’s edges in points and assists.

Derrick Rose’s scoring is down from last year, but he’s still a top producer.

Rounding out the current top 10 are two mild surprises, Marc Gasol and James Harden. Gasol cracks the top 10 on the strength of his block and steal numbers, as well as rebounding. He gets an additional boost for qualifying at center, a position where his 12.5 points per game actually looks quite good.

Harden has improved markedly across the board, averaging nearly 18 points and 5 rebounds per game.

This top 10 is using cumulative totals, so players who have played more games (such as Lakers or Thunder) rank higher than those who, either due to schedule or injury, have played less.

When I rank players by per-game production, the new top 10 is (in order): James, Love, Kyle Lowry, Howard, Anthony, Durant, Chris Paul, Marc Gasol, Manu Ginobili, and Spencer Hawes.

Lowry has missed 2 games with a bruised right foot (plus his Rockets have only played 8 so far), but he’s averaging 10 assists, 2 steals and 6 rebounds per game. Chris Paul’s Clippers have simply only played 6 games, which kept him out of the cumulative top 10. Spencer Hawes’s per-game numbers are almost as good as Marc Gasol’s, and he’s posting career bests averages in everything except FT%. His 64.6% FG accuracy leads the league among players with at least 40 attempts, which further boosts his value (although LeBron James’s 60.2 helps a fantasy team more, because he takes so many more shots).

Manu Ginobili’s broken hand derailed an excellent start, as he was shooting 59.2% from the floor, and 93.8% from the line with 14 3s in just 5 games. Ginobili is expected to miss another 6 weeks.

RotoValue prices are customized to the categories, positional eligibility, and roster sizes of a league. What categories you count affects who is most valuable, so as a point for comparison here’s the cumulative top 10 for a 9 category league (same roster sizes as above, but adding turnovers as a category, where lower is better):

Compared to the 8 category format, Ryan Anderson (!) now ranks 3rd, and Danilo Gallinari comes in 9th, replacing Kobe Bryant and Derrick Rose.

Bryant’s 41 turnovers lead the league, and drop him to 17th overall, while Rose’s 33 tie for the 5th most, and he falls to 14th in that format.

Anderson, off to a career best start, is hitting a lot of 3s, rebounding, and has an amazingly low 2 turnovers in 9 games. Plus he’s shooting 88% from the line. Gallinari is also a strong free throw shooter, and is averaging almost 2 steals per game, with only 14 turnovers.

Computing per-game RotoValue for a 9 category league, the ranking in order is James, Love, Lowry, Ginobili, Marc Gasol, Anderson, Paul, Anthony, and Hawes. As before, switching to per-game ranking brings Lowry, Ginobili, Paul, and Hawes into the top 10. This makes Durant, Pau Gasol, and Gallinari drop out of the top 10, while James Harden now doesn’t even make the top 20.

It’s still early. Two weeks of live games are a small sample size, especially coming after a truncated preseason, which seems to have affected some players much more than others. I wouldn’t count on James Harden remaining a top 10 player, but barring injury Kevin Durant will be, no matter what format you use. But it’s good to take an early snapshot to see who is playing well, and indeed surprisingly well.

LeBron has stopped shooting 3s, but with that has come his best ever field goal percentage. Most owners should be quite happy with that trade. Ryan Anderson is playing quite well, and is especially valuable in 9 category leagues because he’s almost never turning the ball over. Kyle Lowry has played as well or better than any other point guard in the league. And keep an eye on under-the radar production at center from Marc Gasol and Spencer Hawes.

My long-time NBA league, the Ezra Stiles Rotisserie Association, is having its first ever actual draft tomorrow night. Oh, we do a full draft every season. At least we talk about “when is the draft”, or “see you at the draft”, or whatnot. But since its founding in 1988, the league has always used an auction, not a draft, to allocate its players.

With the lockout and uncertain start of the season, we were unable to get together a full day to do an auction. We draft a total of 200 players, and in the past auctions typically take 8-10 hours. Based on the experiences some of us have had with fantasy football drafts, we think a draft should take half as much time, or even less. So a weeknight draft it is.

I’ve always been biased in favor of auctions, first and foremost because it’s fairer. When everyone has the same salary cap and roster size to fill, they also can in theory win any player they like. If you’re picking 6th or later, LeBron will be long gone before you pick. And Durant. Some years there’s little difference among the top 4-5 players, so getting the 4th or 5th pick is actually a little better than getting the 1st. Other years, there’s a big gap. Where your first round pick is greatly affects how your team will shake out, as you know certain players will be available (or gone!) when you pick. So a draft is much more affected by luck.

An auction also is more fun, and has more drama and suspense, especially when two owners get caught in a bidding war. With a draft, you mostly know going in where the very best players wind up – sure, owners may disagree over whether Derrick Rose should go ahead of Dwyane Wade or Chris Paul, the best players will go mostly in order, and either someone picks him, or he doesn’t. With an auction, as the auctioneer begins the countdown for each player, there’s suspense: will Joe go one bid higher? And if so, will Tim respond? Whoa, I didn’t realize A.J. was still interested in this guy! And this gets repeated for each very good player.

Also in an auction, while better players tend to go early, while everyone still has a lot of money, sometimes a very good player doesn’t get nominated for a long time, so even in the middle or late stages, you can still be bidding on star players. After the first few rounds of a draft, all the stars are gone.

At the end the auction becomes a de facto draft: nobody has much money left, so simply picking  a player usually wins him. But sometimes not, as just one owner with a little bit more can steal a player late from another.

Auctions are harder than drafts: you have to manage a budget, and decide how to allocate resources, etc. But in an auction, you get a “second chance” when someone nominates for bid a player you’d forgotten about. With a straight draft, you simply don’t pick the player, and say, gee, that was a good pick, Chris. I wish I had remembered him. But in an auction, as long as I still have money, I can still possibly get the player, and maybe outbid Jeff or Lorin to do so.

So I’ll miss the auction format. This year, the random number generator gave Erik the first pick, so good luck to him! That is somehow fitting, as it was Erik who founded the league back in 1988. He deserves the honor of the first pick. Even if it means I can’t get LeBron back on my team!

In a move that smacks more of fantasy leagues than a real professional sport, NBA Commissioner David Stern rejected a three team trade that would have sent Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Lakers last Friday. The Hornets would have gotten Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, Lamar Odom, Goran Dragic, and a first round draft pick (in the slot of the New York Knicks); the Houston Rockets would have gotten Pau Gasol.

Earlier this week, the New Orleans Hornets worked out a trade to send Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers, for Eric Gordon, Chris Kaman, Al-Farouq Aminu, a first round draft pick (in the slot of the Minnesota Timberwolves), and two second-round picks.

Just for fun, I’ll “score” the trades, using the RotoValue pricing model and the parameters for the NBA league I belong to, the Ezra Stiles Rotisserie Association*.

First, the trade which actually happened, Paul for Kaman, Gordon, Aminu and the draft picks (which I’m ignoring, since they posted no 2010-2011 stats):

Well, gee, that sure worked out well! Chris Paul earned $3.21 according to Roto Value last year, but the three players the Hornets got back earned only $1.19 cumulatively. So this deal is lopsided in favor of the Clippers! Okay, but both Eric Gordon and Chris Kaman missed a lot of time last year, and RotoValue is simply looking at their cumulative stats. Let’s try again, only valuing players on a per-game basis, rather than full season:

Whew! That’s much better. Now it looks like an even trade: the Clippers give up $3.40 in value, and get back $3.35. Rarely are even fantasy trades that even on paper. And I’m not counting the draft picks at all, which have value, so this is probably a good deal for the Hornets, possibly by quite a bit.

Now, the deal that was killed, Paul to the Lakers for Martin, Scola, Odom, and Dragic, using 2011 statistics:

 Now the four players the Hornets would get back cumulatively earned $5.34, $5.87 if you ignore Dragic’s negative value. So as a fantasy trade, the Lakers/Rockets were giving up a lot more total value. The trade might still work since Paul is the best player, and uses only one roster spot, but in the context of my league, this was quite a lopsided trade. We don’t veto trades in our league, but if we did, it would have been because the Hornets got too much, not too little in return. I’m not even counting the value of the draft pick!

Now for a real basketball analysis, you’d need to consider a lot more. Certainly the draft picks have value (the T-Wolves’ first rounder is a likely lottery pick, while the Knicks’ pick likely isn’t) that I’m not accounting for, and these RotoValue prices value players based only on the stats that count in the particular league. Also the teams have the players for more than just one year, albeit also often with particular contracts. So I’m ignoring lots of other factors that go into real NBA value. Indeed part of the attraction of Chris Kaman for the Hornets in the deal is that he has a large expiring contract, giving them lots of cap space to go after free agents next off season. A “real” NBA analysis would need to consider all of these factors.

But if this were a fantasy trade, rather than killing the Lakers deal to help the Hornets, Stern should have killed the deal to help the Lakers!

* Some detail on the Ezra Stiles Rotisserie Association. It’s an 8-team fantasy league drafting a total of 200 players – 25 per team. 20 players start, 4 each at each of the 5 NBA positions. The league has a $30 salary cap per team, and 6 equally weighted scoring categories: points, rebounds, assists, steals + blocks, cumulative FG%, and cumulative FT%.  Some NBA leagues count steals and blocks as separate categories, but we figured neither were as important as the other three cumulative categories we used, yet added together (steal and block totals for individuals are rather similar) you get a decent proxy for defensive ability, so it made sense. At least to us! If you use different categories, roster sizes, and salary caps, computed prices will, of course, differ. But the broad patterns likely stay about the same: the Hornets got more current basketball value from the Lakers/Rockets offer than from the Clippers offer.